{"id":732,"date":"2011-06-24T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-06-24T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/06\/24\/makrooekonomische-daten-27-01-juli-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-06-24T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-06-24T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-27-01-juli-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-27-01-juli-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 27 &#8211; 01 Juli 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">In the Euro area, EU Commission economic sentiment  and the Italian ISAE complete the round of confidence surveys for June,  showing in general a slight dip in sentiment in the wake of concerns  connected with the financial crisis. <\/span>. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><br \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  unemployment data should again show stability in Germany and in Euro  area average terms, and a further rise in Italy. Inflation should be  steady at 3.0% yoy in Italy, rising to 2.5% yoy in Germany and by one  tenth to 2.8% yoy in the Euro area. <\/span>Retail sales in Germany might grow further in May. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">M3 might accelerate to 2.1% yoy in May after the unexpected fall in April.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The coming week is packed with data in the United States. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  June manufacturing surveys (Chicago PMI, ISM) should be down again,  while auto sales should again correct slightly. Consumer confidence  should be up slightly in June. Personal spending should be weak in May  and negative in real terms, reflecting the collapse in auto sales, while  construction spending is expected to improve.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Monday 27 June<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Italy. <\/span>Sector pay is expected to be up 0.1% mom in May, like the previous month. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">Year-onyear  growth would remain stuck at 1.8% yoy (over one point below the average  for the last five years). According to ISTAT projections, barring  renewals, the trend in sector pay might slow by several tenths in the  coming months, probably remaining below inflation throughout the year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Personal  spending should be unchanged in May, held back by the steep fall in  auto sales, the weakness of services (utilities moderated by the cool  weather) and modest growth in weekly sales. <\/span>In real terms, consumption should be down slightly (-0.1% mom). <span lang=\"EN-GB\">Personal  income is expected to be up 0.3% mom, with wages and salaries up 0.3%  mom. The deflator should be up 0.2% mom, with the core rate rising more  strongly (0.3% mom, 1.2% yoy) in line with the indications from the CPI:  the trend in core inflation should continue without slowing. The saving  rate should rise to 5.1% in May from 4.9% in April. 2Q11 consumption is  on track for growth of 2.3% qoq ann., slightly better than 1.8% qoq  ann. in 1Q11.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Tuesday 28 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Italy.  Business confidence is expected to be little changed in June (our  estimate: 101.5 vs. 101.3 in May). May saw a fall in orders, but the  hard data on orders look more reassuring than surveys suggest. Business  confidence rose in the same month both in Germany and France, while the  performance of Italian industry might be less buoyant.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Germany.  The data from the Laender should be consistent with consumer prices up  0.1% mom in June, inflation should hover at 2.3% yoy. On the harmonised  measure, inflation should be up by on tenth to 2.5% yoy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Consumer  confidence as measured by the Conference Board is expected to rise to  63 in June from 60.8 in May. In May the survey recorded a fall in the  view of present conditions (to 39.3 from 40.2), and a steeper correction  in expectations (to 75.2 from 83.2 in April). In June the index of  current conditions might correct again, but expectations should recoup  some of the ground lost last month. The weekly confidence index improved  as of the third week in May, returning in mid-June to the levels seen  two months before.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Wednesday 29 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  EU Commission index of economic confidence is expected to be steady at  105.5 in June after the May fall. Household confidence according to the  advance estimate was roughly steady at -10 from -9.9, while  manufacturing business confidence (according to the national surveys)  might have risen to 5 from 3.9; the service, retail and construction  indices might be down slightly. The composite index is still consistent  with GDP growth roughly in line with the 2.5% yoy recorded in 1Q11.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Thursday 30 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Retail sales are expected to be up 0.5% mom in May after rising slightly in April. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">If  confirmed, the figure would leave sales on track for a fall of 0.7% qoq  in June given the weak end to the first quarter. The consumption  outlook remains fair, given the healthy state of the labour market and  the expected cooling of inflation looking forward.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">France.  Consumer spending is expected to bounce to at least 0.5% mom in May  after two months of falls. Year-on-year, sales might nonetheless slow to  1% yoy, and would be on track for a sharp contraction in 2Q11,  increasing the risk of a marked downturn in GDP in 2Q11.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro  area inflation might return to the April level of 2.8% yoy in June.  Between now and the autumn Euro area inflation will move roughly around  the current levels and sharp falls will only come around year-end.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Year-on-year  growth in M3 might be up one-tenth at 2.1% yoy in May after the  unexpected fall in April. The data should also show an ongoing slowdown  in M1 and an upturn in loans to the private sector (notably to firms).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Italy. Consumer prices should be up one-tenth in June (with some downside risks), like the previous month. <\/span>Inflation would accelerate to 2.7% yoy from 2.6%. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">On  the harmonised measure, we estimate 0.2% mom and inflation steady at 3%  yoy. The June figure might mark a high for Italian inflation, but the  cooling will be very slow.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Germany. The unemployment rate should be steady at 7% in June (the figure marks a near- 20-year low). <\/span>The jobless total might be down 10k (after 8k in May). <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The economic surveys confirm the exceptional resilience of the German labour market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  Chicago PMI should be down again in June, falling to 55 from 56.6 in  May. Last month the survey showed a collapse in production (to 56 from  70) and new orders (to 53.5 from 66.3). June should bring another, small  correction, once gain due to the effects of the earthquake in Japan on  the auto sector. Output and orders should pick up in the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 1 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Italy.  The unemployment rate might rise to 8.2% in May according to the  preliminary estimates based on monthly data (the fall in the jobless  total seen the previous month was due largely to the increase in the  number of inactive workers). The final estimates of the quarterly data  should show a fall in the jobless rate to at least 8.4% (from 8.5%  before), and a further fall should be expected in 2Q11 according to the  monthly estimates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  unemployment rate in the Euro area might be down one-tenth at 9.8% in  May, driven mainly by Germany. The unemployment rate will remain  double-digit in the peripheral countries. Looking forward, the jobless  total should continue to fall in the coming months, albeit very slowly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Consumer  confidence in June as measured by the Univ. of Michigan (final) should  improve on the preliminary figure, rising to 72.5 from 71.8. Worth  watching are inflation expectations five years fwd which, in the advance  reading, were rising again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  manufacturing ISM is expected to fall further to 51 in June from 53.5  in May. The regional surveys were consistently negative: even allowing  for the increased volatility of the Philly Fed and Empire surveys, the  ISM too is likely to continue on the downtrend stretching back to April.  Some of the slowdown in the data and the surveys is temporary and due  to the effects of the earthquake, but the general trend remains  uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Construction  spending is expected to be up 0.4% mom in May. Spending should continue  along the moderate uptrend seen in recent months, picking up after the  negative weather effects of the first quarter. Based on the upturn in  new starts, residential spending should be up in May, amid smaller  increases in non-residential construction and public building. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Auto  sales in June should again be affected by the supply-side problems  stemming from the Japanese earthquake. In May sales plummeted to 11.8M  units ann., and June should bring a further small fall to 11.6M units.  Sales are expected to pick up in the summer, when output should  normalise and inventories should be up from the very low levels seen in  recent months.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area, EU Commission economic sentiment and the Italian ISAE complete the round of confidence surveys for June, showing in general a slight dip in sentiment in the wake of concerns connected with the financial crisis. . &#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/732\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}