{"id":748,"date":"2011-07-08T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-07-08T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/07\/08\/makrooekonomische-daten-11-15-juli-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-07-08T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-07-08T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-11-15-juli-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-11-15-juli-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 11 &#8211; 15 Juli 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The coming week is thin on data in the Euro area.  Industrial production in France and the Euro area should be up in May,  in light too of positive numbers from Germany. Inflation in June should  confirm that prices have peaked, suggesting a very gradual downtrend in  the coming months.<\/span>.<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  coming week is packed with data and events in the United States. All  the inflation indices should be affected by the fall in the oil price,  with month-on-month corrections in the headline measures; the CPI and  PPI core indices should on the other hand continue on the recent trend  of gains close to +0.2% mom. Industrial production in June should be  driven by the upturn in auto sector activity and the Empire should  return to positive territory in July. The minutes of the June FOMC  meeting and Bernanke\u2019s testimony to Congress should confirm the pause in  monetary policy and the view of a temporary slowdown, without any hints  at the possibility of QE3<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 11 July<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">France.  Industrial production is expected to be up 0.2% mom in May, after the  contraction of -0.3% mom seen in April. Manufacturing sector output  should be unchanged on the back of the closure of Toyota factories due  to the effects of the earthquake. In quarter-on-quarter terms,  industrial production would be down -0.9% qoq in 2Q11, signalling a  sharper correction than is consistent with the PMI data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 12 July<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">France.  The CPI should be unchanged month-on-month in June, on both the  national and the harmonised index, after +0.1% mom in May. Trend  inflation should remain unchanged at 2% yoy on the national index. The  monthly figure should reflect corrections in energy, food and  manufactured goods, vs. modest increases in services.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  trade balance should show a modest widening of the deficit to USD  44.5Bn in May, after the substantial narrowing seen in April (to USD  43.7Bn). Exports should show growth in capital goods in light of the  aircraft orders and durable goods deliveries. Export prices rose 0.2%  mom in May, far less than in the previous months (+1.3% mom avg. between  January and April). Imports should be up sharply, driven by the  resumption of auto and parts production in Japan. Oil imports should  also show robust growth in volume terms, offset only in part by the fall  in prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  Fed publishes the minutes of the 21-22 June meeting, one day earlier  than usual so as to allow publication of the Report on Monetary Policy  for testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on 13 July.  Bernanke\u2019s press conference has already provided much of the information  on the monetary policy path in the short term: the FOMC has decided to  introduce a pause during which the monetary policy stance will remain  unchanged thanks to the reinvestment of maturing securities. The  committee may assess various uncertainties in this period: impact of the  end of the QE2 programme on the markets, European debt crisis, increase  in the USA\u2019s legal debt limit, and the short-lived or more extended  economic slowdown. The FOMC has already outlined the likely sequence of  exit strategy steps, although for now this has been pushed further back  in time. The minutes will probably not provide any new information, not  least because Bernanke\u2019s testimony the following day will be more upto-  date in light of the macroeconomic data published since then.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 13 July<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> <strong> <\/strong> <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro  area industrial production should be up 0.3% mom in May, after +0.4%  mom in April. Assuming no change in June, the quarter-on-quarter  movement based on the May forecasts would be a modest 0.2% qoq, after  +1.2% qoq in 1Q11. The figures for the core countries should drive the  acceleration in output in May. The May production indices were mixed,  with a contraction in Italy and a very large increase in Germany, while a  small increase is expected in France. The signals from the output  component of the PMI indices are for the expansion to slow but not to  contract, as was seen in the decline in the actual output figures in  March and April in several countries.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Import  prices should be down -0.6% mom in June, the first correction since  June 2010. The fall in prices should be due to the downturn in the oil  price. Ex oil, the growth in import prices should be more moderate than  the +0.4% mom recorded in May. Upward pressures remain in food and  industry; the effect on prices of the supply issues due to the Japanese  earthquake should last for several months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Bernanke  presents the Monetary Policy Report during his six-monthly testimony to  the House Financial Services Committee. The testimony should reiterate  what Bernanke said at the press conference following the June FOMC  meeting. The view of the recovery is characterised by concern over the  \u201cfrustrating\u201d sluggishness of the unemployment rate and the persistently  high level of long-term unemployment. However, Bernanke should repeat  that most of the recent slowdown was likely due to transitory factors.  Some of the testimony may be dedicated to the fiscal problems: on this  front Bernanke should repeat the customary mantra: the fiscal path is  unsustainable, and Congress should offer a viable plan of action,  staggered over time so as not to upset such a fragile recovery. Bernanke  is also expected to flag up with insistence the risks to the economy  and the markets from failure to raise the legal debt limit. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 14 July<\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The ECB publishes its monthly bulletin.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Italy.  The CPI is expected to be up 0.1% mom (3% yoy) in June on the  harmonised and the national index (2.7% yoy). June should mark the high  for inflation on both indices, but the path over the coming months will  be basically stable. Energy should show its second straight contraction  in June (-0.3% mom) after -0.1% mom in May, interrupting the series of  robust gains stretching back to November 2010. The core index should  slow, showing an expected movement of 1.6% yoy in June, after averaging  2% yoy since the start of 2011.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  Euro area CPI for June should confirm the flash estimate, showing no  change month-onmonth and 2.7% yoy. The core index should confirm the  movement of 1.5% yoy seen in May. Our forecast is for May to mark the  inflation high, at 2.8% yoy, with expectations of 2.7% yoy in July,  followed by a very gradual cooling of prices thereafter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  PPI is expected to be down -0.1% mom in June. The core index should be  up 0.2% mom, in line with the recent trend. The headline index will be  impacted by the fall in petrol prices, after months of steep increases  (+49.7% yoy), while food should stabilise after falling heavily in May  (-1.4% mom). The auto sector might show upward pressures in light of the  problems deriving from the Japanese earthquake.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Retail  sales should once again be weak, falling by an estimated -0.2% mom in  June, due I part to the contraction in prices, while the movement ex  auto should be zero (in nominal terms). Petrol sales should show a  contraction due to the fall in forecourt prices in May (-4.1% mom).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Auto  sales fell by -3% mom in June, after plunging in April (-10.5% mom);  activity in the sector continues to be affected by the effects of the  Japanese earthquake, but the indications from producers signal  expectations of a recovery as of July. The effect of the fall in volumes  should be tempered by quite substantial price hikes due to a shortage  of inventories and the resulting removal of the incentives from the  prices charged by dealers. The weakness of sales might also be  exacerbated by another temporary factor: in California the state  congress has not extended the sales tax hike that was introduced  previously, and a shift in sales from June to July is therefore likely  to take advantage of better price terms, notably for durable goods. The  June data should confirm the marked slowdown expected in consumption in  2Q11, although this should be followed by a re-acceleration in the  summer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 15 July<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> <strong> <\/strong> <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  CPI is expected to be down -0.1% mom in June; the core CPI, on the  other hand, should be up 0.2% mom. The headline index will be impacted  by the fall in petrol prices (-4.1% mom). Ex food and energy, the index  should continue along the recent trend, rising by 0.2% mom (average  increase YTD: 0.2% mom, May movement: +0.3% mom). The items expected to  contribute to the May movement are the same that drove up the core  dynamic in recent months. Shelter should continue with monthly increases  of 0.1% mom, though with upside risks stemming from the expected  acceleration in rents: \u201crental of primary residence\u201d (weight 5.925%  within CPI) should soon show month-on-month movements well in excess of  the 0.1% mom of recent months. Notional rents too (weight 24.905%) might  show a more robust trend. The contribution of both new and second-hand  cars should be significant thanks to vigorous demand and supply-side  shortages post-earthquake. Apparel rose sharply in May (+1.2% mom): in  June the movement should be more moderate, although the trend remains  upward in the wake of the weak dollar, rising prices of cotton and goods  produced in emerging countries, and a general improvement in business  pricing power. The data should confirm the gradual uptrend in core  prices, with a movement of 1.6% yoy vs. 1.5% yoy in<\/span> May, back at the January 2010 levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  NY Fed Empire index should climb into positive territory in July at  10.3, after plunging to &#8211; 7.8 in June. An unusual gap has opened up  between ISM and Empire since the start of 2010: the long-term  relationship between the two variables would suggest a level of 17.4 for  the Empire, but the recent behaviour of the two series is consistent  with a far more modest gain. The index should in any case return to  positive territory: the Beige Book reported expansion in June, albeit  \u201cat a somewhat diminished pace\u201d, which is not consistent with the level  of -7.8 recorded in June.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Industrial  production is expected to be up 0.6% mom in June thanks to the expected  growth in auto\/parts sector output, reflecting the start of  normalisation of activity among Japanese automakers. Utilities should  also make a positive contribution to overall output thanks to higher  than usual temperatures in June. <\/span>Capacity utilisation should rise to 77.7%.<span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Household  confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan should rise to 73 in  July (preliminary) after falling heavily to 71.5 in June. The Consumer  Comfort weekly confidence index has risen from the mid-May lows and is  now at the April levels, signalling that the reversal in the petrol  price should reassure consumers about the inflation trend in the short  term. <\/span>Inflation expectations should subside on a one-year time horizon.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The coming week is thin on data in the Euro area. Industrial production in France and the Euro area should be up in May, in light too of positive numbers from Germany. Inflation in June should confirm that prices have peaked, suggesting a very gradual downtrend in the coming months..&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=748"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/748\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}