{"id":759,"date":"2011-07-22T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-07-22T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/07\/22\/makrooekonomische-daten-25-29-juli-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-07-22T10:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-07-22T10:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-25-29-juli-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-25-29-juli-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 25 &#8211; 29 Juli 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Euro area, the EU Commission index of confidence and the  sentiment of Italian and Belgian firms, plus the consumer confidence  indicators in the three major economies<span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">will  complete the round of July confidence surveys, generally confirming a  dip in sentiment in wake of the concerns over the financial crisis. The  other focus will be on inflation, which might be steady or at most rise  by one-tenth in both Germany and Italy and in the entire Euro area (we  expect the CPI to remain broadly steady through to the end of autumn).  M3 should continue its slow uptrend. The German data should show  unemployment still at all-time lows, but retail sales will again be  weak.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  coming week is thin on data in the United States. The first 2Q11 GDP  estimate should show a slight improvement in growth after a  disappointing first quarter. Durable goods orders are expected to be up  moderately in June. Household confidence should continue to be dogged by  uncertainties over the economy and fiscal policy. The Beige Book should  signal ongoing growth.<br \/>The Chicago PMI is expected to make up ground in July.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Monday 25 July<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro area<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Italy. The index of household confidence is expected to fall for the  second straight month in July (our estimate: 104 vs. 105.8 in June). In  addition to the persistent uncertainty over the economic situation,  sentiment might also have been dented by the negative impact of the  public finance correction package on disposable income. Consumer  confidence, notably looking forward, signals a possible slowdown in  consumption on a 6-12 month horizon.<br \/>&#8211; The BNB (Belgian manufacturing  business confidence) index, considered a leading indicator of  industrial activity in the Euro area, might be down for the fourth  straight month in July (our estimate: -2.5 vs. -1.1). The index would  still be above the long-term average (-7.5). In recent months the index  has shown a close correlation with the trend in the Euro area  manufacturing PMI (probably at this time the two confidence indices with  the highest forward-looking weighting).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tuesday 26 July<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">United States<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Sales of new homes should fall to 305k in June from 319k in May. Last  month the NAHB confidence survey showed a two-point fall and indicated  ongoing weakness in current sales.<br \/>&#8211; Household confidence as measured  by the Conference Board should rise to 60 in July from 8.5 in June. The  Univ. of Michigan index plunged in the July preliminary reading, in  both the view of the present situation and in expectations; however, the  Bloomberg Comfort weekly index showed two consecutive gains. The rally  in equities and the fall in the price of petrol should at least  stabilise sentiment.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wednesday 27 July<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro area<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Annual growth in M3 might continue to pick up slowly. We are looking  for a rate of 2.5% yoy in June, one-tenth up on the previous month. The  data should again show a slowdown in M1, while loans to the private  sector (notably businesses), still struggling to gather momentum, should  be little changed.<br \/>&#8211; Italy. The index of manufacturing business  confidence might fall for the fourth straight month in July (our  estimate: 100 vs. 100.5 before). In June, for the first time in almost  two years, firms reported that inventories were higher than was  desirable (given the current pace of sales), which is not reassuring for  industry looking ahead; in addition, in recent months export orders  have also fallen back.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Germany. The figures from the Laenders should be consistent with a  consumer prices growth of 0.3% mom in July, giving a year-on-year  dynamic steady at 2.3%. Prices on the harmonised measure might be up  0.4%, accelerating to 2.5% yoy. Fuel prices were little changed during  the month, but the seasonality of July is not particularly favourable.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">United States<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Durable goods orders are expected to be up slightly in June (+0.1%  mom); ex transportation, orders should be up +0.5% mom. The orders  component of the ISM remained just over 50 (51.6 in June) after the  steep fall in May. The trend in orders should be slightly positive, and  better in respect of capital goods ex defence and aircraft.<br \/>&#8211; The  Beige Book prepared for the August FOMC meeting might cast light on the  transitory nature of the recent slowdown. In the previous report, the  Beige Book signalled ongoing activity growth in all areas, with less  negative indications than were seen in the actual data.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The data on the labour market and the effects of the earthquake in Japan will be key to an assessment of the outlook.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thursday 28 July<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro area<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Germany. The unemployment rate should be steady at 7% in June (the  figure marks a closeon 20-year-low). The jobless total might be down 5k,  roughly in line with the 8k reported in April and May. The economic  surveys confirm the resilience of the German labour market; moreover,  the termination of the Kurzarbeit scheme has been holding back the fall  in the jobless total for some months now.<br \/>&#8211; Italy. Contractual pay  growth should be steady at 1.8% yoy in June. The figure would be  consistent with month-on-month growth in pay of one-tenth. According to  ISTAT projections, barring renewals, the sector pay dynamic might slow  by several tenths in the coming months, likely remaining below inflation  for the whole year.<br \/>&#8211; The EU Commission index of economic confidence  is expected to fall for the fifth straight month in July, slipping to  104.5 from 105.1 in June. Household confidence, according to the  preliminary estimate, fell to -11.4 from -10.3 and manufacturing  business confidence might (according to the national surveys) fall to 2  from 3.2. The other sub-indices (services, trade and construction)  should be steady or down. The level of the composite index still remains  above the long-term mean (100.8) and is still consistent with GDP  growth roughly in line with the 2.5% yoy recorded in 1Q11, i.e. not  signalling a sharp cycle reversal, at least for now.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Friday 29 July<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro area<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Germany. Retail sales might bounce, but only slightly, in June after  falling sharply in May (our estimate: +1% vs. -2.5% mom). This would  mean a fall of -2.1 % qoq in 2Q11 (the steepest in other two years),  after +0.7% qoq in 1Q11. Despite the buoyancy of the cycle, consumption  in Germany remains disappointing.<br \/>&#8211; France. Consumer spending is  expected to bounce to at least 0.5% mom in May after three months of  falls. Year-on-year, sales might turn positive at 1.3% yoy, whilst still  showing a very sharp contraction in 2Q11 (-4.2% qoq), which increases  the risk of a marked slowdown in GDP in 2Q11.<br \/>&#8211; Euro area inflation  might stick at 2.7% yoy in June (with some upside risks). The figure  would be consistent with a fall in prices of four-tenths in the month,  mainly due to the seasonality of July. Looking ahead, we expect  inflation to remain broadly steady through to November, with  substantially falls only coming between year-end 2011 and start-2012.<br \/>&#8211;  Italy. Consumer prices might be up 0.4% mom (with some downside risks)  in July, leaving year-on-year inflation up one-tenth at 2.8%. The  harmonised index should see prices fall by &#8211; 0.8% mom while the  year-on-year IACP should be steady at 3%. As with the entire Euro area,  we expect inflation to remain broadly steady through to the end of  autumn.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">United States<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The first 2Q11 GDP estimate should show growth accelerating from 1Q at 2.2% qoq ann.<br \/>Consumption  should slow sharply (+0.8% qoq ann.), although business fixed  investments should be up (+8% qoq ann.), while inventories should make a  positive contribution of around 0.5 pp. Public spending should be up  slightly, while international trade should make a positive contribution  to overall demand. The positive contribution from inventories and the  foreign channel should be magnified by the effects of the Japanese  earthquake and should fall back in the following quarters, by which time  we should see a pick-up in consumption.<br \/>&#8211; Household confidence as  measured by the Univ. of Michigan should rise to 68 in July, after the  steep fall seen in the preliminary reading. In the first reading the  index was down sharply on June, falling to 63.8 from 71.5. The weekly  confidence index rose in the last two weeks and confidence should  respond positively to the fall in the price of petrol and the rally in  equities.<br \/>&#8211; The Chicago PMI should rise to 63 in July from 61.1 in  June, confirming the reversal from the May low of 56.6, but remaining a  long way off the April level (67.6) and the February high (71.2).  Production should be up in July (it fell to 56 in May and rose to 66.9  in June), nearing the April level (70). The survey should confirm the  assumption that most of the spring slowdown was transitory.<span style=\"mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;\" lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area, the EU Commission index of confidence and the sentiment of Italian and Belgian firms, plus the consumer confidence indicators in the three major economies.&#8230;&nbsp;.&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/759\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}