{"id":773,"date":"2011-09-12T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-09-12T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/09\/12\/makrooekonomische-daten-05-09-september-2011-englisch-sp-745316494\/"},"modified":"2011-09-12T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-09-12T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-05-09-september-2011-englisch-sp-745316494","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-05-09-september-2011-englisch-sp-745316494\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 12-16 September 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 12-16 September 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Euro area, July production is expected to be up 1.5% mom, given the bounce in German output, but the recovery will be short-lived according to the sentiment surveys. Italian output should have ticked down further in July. Euro area inflation should be confirmed at 2.5% yoy vs. 2.4% yoy before, while the core dynamic is estimated at 1.6% yoy. French inflation should also be up. The Euro area employment data should show growth of 0.1% qoq in 2Q11, whereas the labour cost should moderate to 2.3% yoy from 2.6% yoy.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The coming week is packed with data in the United States. The first regional manufacturing surveys for September should be up after the heavy falls seen in July-August. Retail sales and industrial production should show modest gains in August. In services, the moderation of the energy sector will ease the pressure on the headline indices, while the core indices will retain their recent trends, with consumer price inflation nearing 2%.  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Monday 12 September<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Italy. Industrial production is expected to be down again in July at -0.2% mom vs. -0.6% mom in June. Adjusted for working days, output should be broadly steady at 0.3% yoy vs. 0.2% yoy before. The weak exit from 2Q11 and the expected downturn at the start of the summer leave production on track for a -0.8% qoq drop in 3Q11. Italian business confidence surprisingly picked up in August, but the worsening mood in the rest of the Euro area suggests a further macro slowdown in 3Q11.  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 13 September<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; France. Inflation is estimated at 2.0% yoy in August vs. 1.9% yoy in July Consumer prices are expected to be up 0.3% mom, with an acceleration in manufactured goods prices, as is usual in August. Energy contribution should be neutral, while fresh food is expected to be down. Core inflation is estimated at 1.4% yoy. On the harmonised measure, inflation should come to 2.2% yoy from 2.1% yoy before. French inflation is expected to cool to 2% by year-end.<br \/>&#8211; Spain. Spanish inflation should be confirmed at 2.7% yoy (final) in August, vs. 3.0% yoy in July; further cooling below 2% is expected as of start 2012.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Import prices are expected to be down -0.7% mom in August after rising by 0.3% mom in July. The correction will be supported by the fall in energy prices which have been cooling since end-July and should help slow the import price dynamic in September too. Ex oil, prices should be unchanged, signalling an easing of the overall inflation pressures.  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 14 September<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Euro area. Industrial production is expected to pick up by 1.5% mom in July after the 1.2% mom contraction seen in June, given the surprising growth in German output and to a lesser degree in Dutch production. If confirmed, the figure would leave the quarter-on-quarter dynamic on course for growth of over 1.0% qoq in September and would point to Euro area GDP growth of at least 0.2% qoq in 3Q11. The indications suggest a dip in production as early as August.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The PPI should be unchanged month-on-month in August, after +0.2% mom in July. The core PPI should slow from the +0.4% mom recorded in July, rising by 0.2% mom, with moderation in the auto sector after several months of robust gains due in part to the effects of the Japanese earthquake.<br \/>&#8211; Retail sales should be up 0.2% mom in August; ex auto sales should be more robust, expanding by +0.4% mom. In light of the August auto sales figures (12.1M units ann., vs. 12.2M in July), total sales should be down in the auto sector, though this will be more than offset by the positive performance of other areas. Weekly sales were better than expected, and activity expanded in the latter part of the month as people stocked up on essentials ahead of hurricane Irene. Weakness in housing-related segments is likely.  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Thursday 15 September<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Euro area. The final estimate for August should confirm Euro area inflation at 2.5% yoy vs. 2.4% yoy before. Consumer prices should be up 0.2% mom in August. Energy should have made a neutral contribution, while food should be down. Prices ex energy and food are expected to be up 0.3% mom and core inflation is estimated at 1.6% yoy from 1.5% yoy before. Inflation excluding energy food alcohol and tobacco should gain one notch to 1,3% yoy. The inflation dynamic will remain above 2% through to start 2012, when the impact of the last year\u2019s energy price hikes will fall out from the annual comparison. Going forward the fall in commodities futures and notably oil indicates a weaker contribution from energy than we expected at the start of summer. At the same time, the deteriorating growth output suggests limited pressure on wages and domestic prices.<br \/>&#8211; Euro area. Employment in the Euro area likely grew 0.1% qoq at best in 2Q11, in line with 1Q trend. Employment might be up 0.4% yoy from 0.3% yoy before. The surveys point to broadly steady employment conditions in 3Q11. Employment is expected to lend limited support to the wage dynamic between now and year-end. During 2012, if the cycle slowdown is confirmed, employment might even remain stagnant. <\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The CPI is expected to be up 0.3% mom in August. Despite the fall in the price of petrol, the seasonal adjustment factor implies a small increase in the seasonally-adjusted figure. The core rate should be up 0.2% mom, with trends continuing notably in housing, and particularly the rents segment which continues to show vigorous acceleration. In trend terms the core CPI should rise by 1.9% yoy vs. 1.8% yoy in July.<br \/>&#8211; The NY Fed Empire index should rise to -1 in September from -7.72 in August. The first August manufacturing surveys were far more negative than the end-of-month surveys, perhaps due in part to the effects on sentiment of the debt ceiling crisis and the S&#038;P downgrade. The relationship between Empire and ISM and Chicago PMI implies a rise in the NY Fed index to 6.9 and 12.5 respectively from the negative figure seen in August.<br \/>&#8211; Industrial production should be up 0.2% mom in August. Activity in the auto sector expanded strongly during the month, but the indications of hours worked in manufacturing suggest a generally modest dynamic in the sector (+0.2% mom) which turns negative ex auto. <br \/>&#8211; The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to improve to -5 in September after plummeting to \u201330 in August. The indications of the ISM and Chicago PMI, recorded some two weeks after the Philly Fed, were far less negative and should be consistent with a positive Philadelphia Fed index (+1.7 based on the ISM data, 8.2 on the Chicago PMI data).  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Friday 16 September<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Euro area. The labour cost might cool to 2.3% yoy in June after 2.6% yoy at the start of the year, thanks to wage moderation. Pressures from the cycle and the high unemployment rate will keep the labour cost under control over the rest of the year and into 2012.<br \/>&#8211; The European agenda includes an informal Ecofin meeting extended to Saturday 17 and preceded by a Eurogroup meeting. On that occasion the thorny issue of the guarantees demanded by several countries before the fresh aid programme for Greece may go ahead will have to be discussed. The agencies report proposals that would make the furnishing of guarantees dependent on a reduction in the share of the earnings of the EFSF, an option which Slovenia and Slovakia are said to oppose. <br \/><strong><br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Household confidence as measured by the University of Michigan in September (preliminary) is expected to rise slightly to 57 from 55.7 in August. The weekly confidence indicator shows no meaningful improvement in sentiment. The late August Michigan survey put the coincident index at 68.7 (vs. 63.7 in July) and expectations at 47.4 (from 56 in July).<\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 12-16 September 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=773"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}