{"id":778,"date":"2011-09-16T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-09-16T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/09\/16\/makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-september-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-09-16T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-09-16T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-september-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-september-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 19-23 September 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 19-23 September 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">In  the Euro area, the turbulence in the markets might have dented business  and household confidence again in September. We expect the ZEW to plunge  to -48 from -37.6, whereas we expect smaller falls in the composite PMI  (to 50.3 from 50.7) and in the index of manufacturing business  confidence in France (to 102 from 105) and in Belgium (to -8.9 from  -7.8). Household sentiment might slip to -17.7 from -16.5. Only hard  data for September will afford insight into the actual extent of the  cycle slowdown; at this time the sentiment surveys might over-react in  the wake of the financial crisis.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  coming week is relatively thin on data in the United States, though it  will be important in&nbsp; terms of events. The FOMC meeting should confirm  the launch of another monetary stimulus programme, aimed at extending  the duration of the Fed\u2019s portfolio. The data due out relate to the  residential building sector. In August, starts and permits should be  down, while existing home sales are expected to put in a small bounce  after the heavy correction in July.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/> <strong>Monday 19 September<br \/>United States<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp; The  NAHB index of homebuilders\u2019 confidence should be steady at 15 in  September. In the best-case scenario, new starts and new home sales  should retain the levels seen in recent months.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Tuesday 20 September<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp; Owing to the marked  turbulence in the markets and the considerable uncertainty, the ZEW  index is expected to fall to -48 from -37.6 before, virtually the  pre-Lehman levels. The index of the present situation should fall to 48  from 53.5 and there is scope for a further correction in the coming  months since the indicator is still above the long-term mean.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  New starts are expected to fall to 580k in August from 604k in July.  The August employment report recorded a fall in payrolls in the  construction sector, lending weight to the forecast of weak data on  starts. In July starts were virtually steady, showing a sizeable  contraction in the single-family segment offset by growth in  multi-family homes. August should show a correction in multi-family  units and a slight recovery in single homes. Permits should also be  down, slipping to 585k from 601k in July. The data are consistent with a  lack of trend in the sector.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 21 September<br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp; Sales of  existing homes are expected to rise to 4.8M units ann. in August,  following the fall to 4.67M in July. According to this forecast, sales  should return to the June levels. Pending home sales were positive and  point to sales returning to the 2Q11 sales average. However, the sharp  fall in confidence since August, coupled with weak mortgage application  data, likely point to increased caution in the sector.<br \/>&nbsp; The FOMC  meeting should end with another step forward on the path to further  monetary stimulus. The vote should again show a broad split, with three  explicit dissenters. The committee should announce a programme of  long-end securities purchasing vs. sales at the short-end. The  effectiveness of the programme to stimulate growth would be modest and  partly depends on the Treasury\u2019s debt management stance. The adoption of  a QE3 programme is contingent on a further deterioration in the  macroeconomic outlook and the fiscal policy indications, and in any case  it would not be considered until year-end.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 22 September<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  Factory orders should be up 0.5% mom in July given the vigour of the  German numbers. The PMI and confidence surveys signal a slowdown in  orders as of August. A clearer view of the underlying trend in European  industry will only be possible after the summer.<br \/>&nbsp; Household  confidence might worsen further in September, falling to -17.7 from  -16.5. The market turbulence and the see-saw newsflow on the crisis are  depressing household sentiment, pushing back spending plans.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Friday 23 September<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp; The composite PMI might  fall to 50.3 in September from 50.7 before. The index is thus nudging  stagnation. After correcting sharply last month, the manufacturing PMI  might remain broadly steady at 49.0, while services might slip to 51.0  from 51.5. Only the real data for September will afford insight into the  actual extent of the cycle slowdown; at this time the sentiment surveys  might over-react in the wake of the financial crisis.<\/div>\n<p><strong>&nbsp; France.<\/strong> The manufacturing business confidence index is expected to fall to 102  in September from 105 before (the figure relates to July since INSEE  does not publish the survey in August).<br \/>Specifically, we expect a  downward revision to output expectations for the coming months. The  index would still remain above the long-term mean of 99.<br \/>&nbsp; In Belgium  economic confidence is expected to fall to -8.9 from -7.8. The  manufacturing survey breakdown will be of interest, particularly the  trend in export orders; a steep fall might foreshadow a correction in  the IFO due out on 26 September.   <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 19-23 September 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/778\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}