{"id":786,"date":"2011-09-30T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-09-30T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/09\/30\/makrooekonomische-daten-03-07-oktober-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-09-30T16:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-09-30T16:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-03-07-oktober-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-03-07-oktober-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 03-07 Oktober 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 03-07 <span id=\"result_box\" class=\"short_text\" lang=\"de\"><span class=\"hps\">Oktober<\/span><\/span> 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">In  the Euro area the markets will be focused on developments in the debt  crisis and the ECB meeting. The handful of economic data due out will  confirm the fall in the PMI indices in September and will show a  contraction both in Euro area retail sales and in industrial production  in Germany in August. However, it is only with the \u201chard\u201d data for  September\/October that it will be possible to assess the actual size of  the current Euro area slowdown, leaving aside the summer volatility and  the effects of the financial crisis on the surveys.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  coming week is packed with data in the United States, bringing the main  September indicators. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM  should remain broadly steady at just above 50, while auto sales are  expected to accelerate. The employment report should show improving  payrolls growth, although the unemployment rate should rise to 9.2%. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Monday 3 October<\/strong><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">_ The final reading of the  September PMI manufacturing should confirm a further fall to 48.4 after  the index slipped below 50 in August for the first time in almost two  years. The first estimate of the Italian PMI might show a dip to 46 from  47. The level of the PMI index is now consistent with stagnation of  economic activity in industry.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">_ Construction spending is expected to be down 0.1% mom in August. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">Residential  building should contract slightly in light of the negative data on new  starts and the stability of the NAHB confidence index. Commercial  building should continue the recent positive trend, while spending the  public sector should continue to shrink.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">_  The manufacturing ISM should be little changed in September, slipping  to 50.1 from 50.6 in August. The regional surveys were generally weak,  showing corrections for the Empire and the Chicago PMI and an  improvement in the Philly Fed, although it had plunged in August  (September gain to -17 from -30 in August). The August survey breakdown  was generally weak, with new orders at 49.6 vs. 49.2 in July, and export  orders easing to 50.5 from 54. The ISM remains consistent with GDP  growth of between 2% and 2.5%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">_  Auto sales should provide the only genuinely positive development in  the September macroeconomic data. Dealership indications as recorded by  JD Power are positive: sales should accelerate to 12.7M units ann. in  September, in the wake of the improvement in dealers\u2019 auto inventories  and demand freed up by the ongoing fall in household debt and financial  commitments. <\/span>Auto sales should help lift consumption in 3Q11.<span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Tuesday 4 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">_ Producer prices should be down  two-tenths in August, giving a year-on-year PPI slowing from 6.1% to  5.8%. The easing of pressures at the upstream end of the production  chain is expected to continue through the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Wednesday 5 October<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Euro area<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">_  The final reading of the composite PMI for September might confirm the  flash estimate of 49.2 (first value below 50 in over two years), vs.  50.7 in August. The crisis should have hit the service sector harder  than manufacturing in September (given the pressures on the banking  sector). In general, the level of the composite PMI is now consistent  with Euro area GDP growth of close to zero.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail sales are expected to be down -0.8% mom in August, after +0.3% mom in July. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  contraction would reflect the increased volatility of sales in Germany  over the summer (+4% mom in June, +0.3% mom in July, -2.9% mom in  August). In any event, the recent decline in consumer confidence, which  is starting to be impacted by the effects of the fiscal tightening,  signals that the sales trend will remain subdued for a long time to  come.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">_  The ADP estimate of new non-farm payrolls in the private sector should  be roughly stable at 91k in September (from 90k the previous month).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">_ The non-manufacturing ISM should correct to 52.5 in September from 53.3 in August. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  index surprisingly rose in August: the survey breakdown was quite  positive, showing gains in orders and activity expanding for 10 out of  15 subsectors. Most sectors should continue to expand in September,  although the growing uncertainty and the correction in the markets  should put downward pressure on the activity indicators.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Thursday 6 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">_ Germany. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">Factory  orders might bounce by an estimated half a point in August after  falling by -2.8% mom in July. Year-on-year, orders would slow to 5.4%  from 8.7%, consistent with the less benign international environment  (the uncertainty surrounding the outlook as a result of the debt crisis  is probably starting to hold back several business investment  decisions).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Friday 7 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">_ Germany. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">Industrial  production is expected to be down -1.5% mom in August after the  exceptional +4% mom recorded in July. Year-on-year, output would slow  from 10.1% to 7.3% (retaining a more than acceptable growth rate). The  surveys also signal, looking forward, less vigorous industrial activity  in Germany, although it remains in better shape than in other countries  and is certainly not set on a recession path.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">United States<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">_ The September should show non-farm payrolls growth of 70k. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  weekly claimant figures showed a small correction in the September  recording week vs. the corresponding week in August, but the overall  dynamic should be bolstered by the return of 46k Verizon workers who  went on strike in August. The public sector should continue to shed  workers: the private sector is expected to have added 105k jobs last  month. The worsening market crisis in the last month has made businesses  more cautious, slowing employment growth which was already subdued  before the summer. The unemployment rate might rise to 9.2% from 9.1% in  August: the Conference Board consumer confidence survey for September  showed a further small deterioration in the view of the labour market  and suggests a fresh rise in the unemployment rate. In addition, the  employment data derived from the individual states were generally more  negative than the nationwide report showed and signal the risk of  downward revisions to August. Hourly wags should pick up 0.2% mom after  slipping by -0.1% mom in August. In general, the labour remains  extremely weak and the overall situation will help persuade Congress to  allow several income-support measures in 2012, despite the aggressive  anti-deficit rhetoric of the Republicans.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 03-07 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=786"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/786\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}