{"id":792,"date":"2011-10-07T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-10-07T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/10\/07\/makrooekonomische-daten-10-14-oktober-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-10-07T16:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-10-07T16:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-10-14-oktober-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-10-14-oktober-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 10-14 Oktober 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 10-14 <span id=\"result_box\" class=\"short_text\" lang=\"de\"><span class=\"hps\">Oktober<\/span><\/span> 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">In  the Euro area, given that the focus will remain on Greece and changes to  the EFSF, the few economic data due out should show a fall in  industrial production in France and the entire Euro area (and only a  partial bounce in Italy after three months on the slide), while the  final estimate of Euro area inflation should confirm the 3% recorded in  September (with a core CPI of 1.7%).<br \/>However, we expect inflation to return nearer to the ECB target next spring.<br \/>The  coming week is thin on data in the United States. The focus will be on  the minutes of the FOMC meeting. With respect to the September data,  retail sales should be up sharply, driven by auto; import prices should  be down again on the correction in energy. Household confidence is  expected to pick up very slightly in October. The August trade balance  should show the deficit narrowing slightly.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 10 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  France. Industrial production might fall by an estimated -0.6% mom in  August, after the unexpected bounce recorded in July (+1.5% mom). This  would imply a year-on-year slowdown to 2.5% from 3.7% before. In any  case, the good July figure leaves output on course for growth of 0.9%  qoq in the third quarter. But the surveys point to a slowdown in the  coming months.<br \/>&#8211; Italy. Industrial production is expected to rebound  by 0.3% mom in August after falling in each of the previous three  months. Year-on-year output, both raw and adjusted for working days, is  estimated at -2.7% yoy in August, which would leave production on course  for a contraction of -1.2% qoq in 3Q11, vs. +1.3% qoq in 2Q11. The  surveys point to a further slowdown in activity over the coming months.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Bond markets closed for Columbus Day.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Tuesday 11 October<br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The minutes of the September FOMC meeting will be important for the  light they shed on the debate to expand the monetary stimulus. The  minutes will show a broad consensus on other actions via 1) more  explicit information on the levels of the macroeconomic variables; 2)  reduction in the interest paid on reserves. It appears from recent  speeches that the three dissenters in August and September are against  new measures, while many members of the majority have not said whether  they are in favour of further action or not.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Wednesday 12 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; France. Inflation is estimated at 2.3% yoy in August (2.5% harmonised) vs. 2.2% yoy in July.<br \/>Consumer  prices should be steady over the month. The year-on-year increase is  largely due to energy. As in other Euro area countries, inflation is  only expected to subside early next year.<br \/>&#8211; Industrial production is  expected to be down -0.5% mom in August, vs. +0.9% mom in July, implying  a year-on-year slowdown from 4.2% to 2.4%. The figure would leave the  quarterly dynamic on track for growth of 0.2% qoq in the third quarter,  roughly in line with the 0.3% qoq seen in 2Q11, which would not  determine a meaningful upturn in GDP after the spring weakness. The  indications are for output to slow further in the coming months.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 13 October<br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The trade balance should the deficit narrowing slightly to USD 44.3Bn,  from USD 44.8Bn in July. Exports should be up, in light of the data on  commercial aircraft and machinery orders.<br \/>Imports should correct, due  mainly to energy prices, despite increased auto imports from Japan as  recorded in the Japanese trade balance data.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Friday 14 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The final August estimate should confirm Euro area inflation at 3% yoy vs. 2.5% yoy before.<br \/>Consumer  prices should be up 0.7% mom in August. The core index is expected to  be up two-tenths at 1.7% yoy. Our forecast is for inflation to near the  ECB target only in the spring, and to fall below the target only at  year-end 2012.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Import prices are expected to be down -0.5% mom in September, after  -0.4% mom in August, in the wake of the fall in the oil price (-11%  during the month); USD depreciation will exert some slight upward  pressure on goods ex-energy.<br \/>&#8211; Retail sales are expected to pick up  sharply in September, thanks mainly to auto. Total sales should be up  +1% mom; sales ex auto are expected to be up 0.3% mom, showing a small  increase in petrol. Auto sales were very strong in September (+7.8%  mom), thanks to the normalisation of supply following the bottlenecks  caused by the Japanese earthquake.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Discretionary  spending, in light of the weekly data, should show a positive dynamic  despite the fluctuations seen during the month due to hurricane Irene.<br \/>&#8211;  The preliminary estimate of consumer confidence as measured by the  Univ. of Michigan should stabilise in October close to the September  level, rising to 60 from 59.4. The confidence indices fell further in  the first two weeks of October, after stabilising somewhat in September,  and they now stand at the mid-2009 levels.<\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 10-14 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}