{"id":798,"date":"2011-10-18T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-10-18T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/10\/18\/makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-oktober-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-10-18T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-10-18T09:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-oktober-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-oktober-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 17-21 Oktober 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 17-21 <span id=\"result_box\" class=\"short_text\" lang=\"de\"><span class=\"hps\">Oktober<\/span><\/span> 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Euro area, the ongoing uncertainty should have further dented business and consumer confidence. We expect the ZEW, which is particularly sensitive to market performance, to fall to -49 (-43.3), while the IFO should slip to 106.3 from 107.5. The INSEE composite index is estimated at 98 vs. 99 before.<br \/>The coming week is packed with data in the United States. The first October sector surveys should confirm the improvement from the August lows. September industrial production should show a moderate gain; starts, permits and existing home sales should show some small improvements. Turning to prices in September, the CPI should show another relatively robust gain, with core inflation above 2% yoy for the first time since November 2008. The PPI should<br \/>show a substantial gain on the headline index, while the core index should be in line with the +0.2% mom trend. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Monday 17 October<\/p>\n<p>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The NY Fed Empire index should improve further, rising to -1 in October from -8.8 in September. The gap between Empire and ISM has opened up to a degree not justified by the historical relationship. Last month the Empire actually worsened further from August, in contrast to all the other surveys, which signal gains from the August downturn. The 2H11 data should be better than those seen in 1H11.<br \/>&#8211; Industrial production is expected to be up 0.3% mom in September. Based on the growth in hours worked in manufacturing, sector output should be up 0.2% mom, while utilities should show a weather-induced acceleration. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 18 October<\/p>\n<p>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The ZEW index will again be affected by the volatility on the financial markets in October and by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding a rapid institutional solution to the crisis. The expectations index is expected to fall to -49 from -43.3, well below the long-term mean but still above the post-Lehman low (-63.3). The present situation index should fall to 35 from 43.6, remaining well above the long-term mean.<br \/>&#8211; September auto registrations will provide insight into the durable goods trend at the end of summer; we expect growth of around 1.0% mom vs. 7.7% mom in August. The retail sales and auto registration data for July and August are consistent with an upturn in Euro area consumption of 0.2-0.3% in the summer months.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The PPI should be up 0.4% mom in September (after no change in August), driven by high energy prices in the first part of the month. The core index should show be up 0.2% mom, after +0.1% mom in August. The upturn in auto prices should support the index after the slide of -0.4% mom seen in the sector in August. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 19 October<\/p>\n<p>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The CPI is expected to be up 0.4% mom in September (3.9% yoy). The headline index should be boosted by a positive contribution from petrol: the correction in prices seen during the month is smaller than that included in the seasonal adjustment. The core index should be up 0.2% mom, in line with the recent trend, driven again by the increase in shelter (rents and notional rents), auto and apparel. Education might also accelerate, following the 0.3% mom posted in August. <br \/>The core CPI would thus show a movement of 2.1% yoy vs. 2% yoy in August. <br \/>&#8211; New starts are expected to grow to 585k units ann. in September, vs. 571k in August. The employment report showed 26k payroll growth in construction; building activity should be concentrated in multi-family homes in light of the upward pressure on rents. Permits should fall slightly in September, easing to 615k from 625k in August, gradually closing the gap with starts. The NAHB confidence survey for September showed a fall to 14 from 15 in August, with indications of a deterioration in both current and future sales.<br \/>&#8211; The Fed publishes the Beige Book ahead of the FOMC meeting at the start of November. The report should signal moderate growth in activity, still uneven across regions but with some added momentum compared with the previous month, given the improvement in the surveys. No significant news is expected on the labour market and prices, clearing the way for further readiness from the FOMC to bolster growth. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Thursday 20 October<\/p>\n<p>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Consumer morale is seen at -21 from an earlier -19.1 in October mostly on the news flow on the crisis. In face of protracted uncertainty households may have cut spending plans further.<br \/>&#8211; Germany. We expect producer prices to rise slightly to 5.6% yoy in October, from 5.5% yoy before, on the back of residual energy sector pressures. In the coming months, the producer price trend is expected to slow, although tensions cannot be ruled out over energy and food prices which are more keenly affected by the trend in commodities.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The Philadelphia Fed index should rise to -7 in October from -17.5 in September. The relationship between Philly Fed and ISM would imply a positive value for the regional index and we expect the gap between the two indices to narrow towards normal in the coming months, indicating a moderate recovery in growth.<br \/>&#8211; Existing home sales are expected to fall to 5M units ann. in September, from 5.03M in August. In recent months pending home sales have remained broadly steady and last month sector sales surprisingly rose by +7.7% mom, making a small correction likely in September. The recent fall in mortgage rates might help lend some modest but positive support to the real estate market. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Friday 21 October<\/p>\n<p>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Germany. We expect the IFO index to fall to 106.3 in October from 107.5 before; this would still leave the index above the long-term mean (100.6). The index of the present situation is expected to slip to 116.5 from 117.9 (long-term mean: 123.3). We expect expectations threesix months forward to correct further to 96.8 from 98.0 before, given the deterioration in demand-side conditions and the growing uncertainty. The global PMI in September signalled a slowdown in manufacturing activity vs. the start of the summer. The IFO remains at levels consistent with an expansion in the German economy at the start of autumn, albeit at a more subdued pace (0.3% qoq) than that estimated for the summer months (0.6% qoq). <br \/>&#8211; France. The INSEE composite index is expected to fall to 98 from 99 before. We expect a revision to expectations amid the decline in demand the rise in inventories flagged up in the September survey. We expect the French economy to stagnate at year-end.<\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 17-21 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/798\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}