{"id":803,"date":"2011-10-21T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-10-21T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/10\/21\/makrooekonomische-daten-24-28-oktober-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-10-21T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-10-21T09:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-24-28-oktober-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-24-28-oktober-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 24-28 Oktober 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 24-28 <span id=\"result_box\" class=\"short_text\" lang=\"de\"><span class=\"hps\">Oktober<\/span><\/span> 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">In  the euro area, the focus will be on the outcome of the European summits  and the developments of the debt crisis. Due out are the remaining  confidence surveys for October: PMI and EU Commission survey for the  entire Euro area, business and consumer confidence in Italy and NBB  survey should all confirm that the negative effect of the financial  crisis is not yet over.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The figures on the Lander will show inflation broadly steady in Germany in October.<br \/>The  data due out in the United States should confirm the moderate uptick in  growth. September durable goods orders should be up ex transportation,  new home sales should be little changed, while household income and  expenditure should show relatively robust increases. Consumer confidence  in October should stick at the low levels seen in previous months. The  first 3Q11 GDP estimate is expected to show a marked acceleration after a  virtually stagnant 1H, boosted by positive contributions from all final  demand items.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 24 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The composite PMI should be in recession territory for the second month  (48.9 vs. 49.1 in September). The manufacturing index might fall  further to 48.2 from 48.5, while the services index, hit hard last month  by the flare-up in banking sector tensions, might be unchanged at  480.8. Should crisis-related market tensions ease, the confidence  indices might stabilise in the coming months.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 25 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Italy. Consumer confidence should be down again in October (for the  fifth straight month), falling to 98 from 98.5 in August. Confidence has  embarked on a dangerous downtrend which might take it close to the July  2008 lows (95.8). The effects of the fiscal tightening and the crisis  of confidence on the financial markets should again be to blame.<br \/>&#8211; In Belgium economic confidence is expected to fall to -10 from -9.4 before. The breakdown of<br \/>the  manufacturing survey will be of interest, notably the trend in export  orders, seen as a predictor of trends in German industry and  consequently in the Euro area as a whole.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is expected to  rise slightly to 46.5 in October from 45.4 in September. The latest data  from the surveys (Univ. of Michigan prel. for October and weekly  Bloomberg Comfort Index) showed fresh corrections after the improvements  seen at the start of the month, but Conference Board confidence stuck  at the August lows in September too; accordingly, this index should show  a modest recovery in October.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 26 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Italy. Business confidence is expected to fall further to 94 in October  from 94.5 in September, leaving it at its lowest level since  start-2010. The restrictive effects of the austerity package should  again be to blame, coupled with the economic uncertainty stemming from  the debt and financial crisis.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Durable goods orders are expected to be down -0.3% mom in September, in  the wake of a correction in commercial aircraft orders which had posted  robust gains in the previous two months. Ex transportation, orders  should be up 0.2% mom, based on the modest gains reported in the ISM.<br \/>&#8211;  New home sales are expected to rise to 300k in September from 295k in  August, with activity and the level of the NAHB survey remaining in the  narrow range seen for many months now.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 27 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The year-on-year M3 growth rate might ease to 2.7% in September from  2.8% yoy in August. The three-month moving average would stand at 2.5%.  It will be important to see the resilience of loans to the private  sector, and notably to businesses, since banks may have passed on the  funding tensions to corporate customers.<br \/>&#8211; Germany. According to the  data from the Lander, consumer prices should be up one-tenth in October,  leaving year-on-year inflation steady at 2.6% on the national measure  and at 2.8% harmonised. During the month, the slight increase in energy  prices should have been offset by a favourable seasonal dynamic.  Inflation might start cooling as early as next month.<br \/>&#8211; The EU  Commission index of economic confidence is expected to be down for the  eighth straight month in October, falling to 93.9 from 95 in September.  Consumer confidence should be confirmed at -19.9 vs. -19.1 before, while  the surveys signal a further dip in business sentiment both in industry  (estimated -7) and in services (-1.5, which would be the first negative  value for almost two years). The index is consistent with basically  zero year-onyear GDP growth.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  GDP growth should accelerate to +2.6% qoq ann. in the third quarter vs.  1.3% qoq ann. in 1Q11. The dynamic should be bolstered by a substantial  upturn in consumption, which should show gains of over 2% qoq ann. vs.  +0.7% qoq ann. in 2Q11. Even non-residential fixed investments should  accelerate. Positive contributions are also expected from public  spending and net exports.<\/div>\n<p><strong>Friday 28 October<br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Personal income should be up 0.3% mom in September, in light of the  positive payrolls and pay data seen in the employment report. Personal  spending should be up 0.7% mom, showing a positive dynamic in real  consumption (+0.4% mom) and prices (+0.3% mom).<br \/>Durable goods  consumption should accelerate vigorously, given the data on auto sales,  while discretionary spending should also show a healthy trend. The core  deflator should be up 0.2% mom, taking the trend movement to 1.8% yoy,  from 1.6% yoy in August. The saving rate should fall to 4.3% from 4.5%  in August.<br \/>&#8211; Consumer confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan  in October (final figure) is expected to improve slightly to 58.5 from  the advance figure of 57.5.  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 24-28 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/803\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}