{"id":809,"date":"2011-10-28T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-10-28T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/10\/28\/makrooekonomische-daten-31-04-november-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-10-28T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-10-28T09:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-31-04-november-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-31-04-november-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 31-04 November 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 31-04 <span id=\"result_box\" class=\"short_text\" lang=\"de\"><span class=\"hps\">November<\/span><\/span> 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">In  the Euro area the markets will focus on the ECB meeting (the first to be  chaired by Mario Draghi) and the G20 summit in Cannes (which should  flesh out the EU crisis-busting plan, notably with regard to possible  IMF and non-EU G20 involvement). The economic data due out should show:  1) inflation little changed in October (it should fall in the coming  months); 2) unemployment steady, at lows in Germany and still  double-digit in the Euro area; 3) confirmation of recession level of  PMIs. The factory orders data in Germany might provide early indications  of the trend in the real data as of September, which will be crucial in  gauging the extent of the Euro area slowdown, aside from the summer  volatility and financial tensions.<br \/>The coming week is packed with  data and events in the United States. The FOMC meeting, followed by  Bernanke\u2019s press conference, should introduce changes to the  communication, revise down the growth forecasts and hint at a possible  third quantitative easing programme.<br \/>The October data should be  moderately positive. The employment dynamic is expected to be in line  with the recent trend, although there are upside risks to the  unemployment rate. The ISM surveys should show a slight improvement,  while auto sales should confirm the high levels seen in September.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 31 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  On the preliminary estimate, Euro area inflation might stick at 3% yoy  in October. Based on the data already out, the CPI fell one-tenth in  Germany (to 2.8%) and was steady in Spain (at 3%). The figure would be  consistent with prices growth of three-tenths during the month.<br \/>The  current level might mark a high for inflation, the trend in which,  especially ex the more volatile components and the impact of indirect  taxes and controlled prices, is not worrying. In any case, the CPI is  not expected to return close to the ECB target before the spring.<br \/>&nbsp;  The Euro area unemployment rate might be steady at 10% for the fifth  month running in September. Given the fraught economic situation in  several countries, the jobless rate might rise looking forward, after  the signs of improvement seen this last year.<br \/>&nbsp; Italy. Consumer  prices on the national measure are expected to be up three-tenths in  October (they were steady in September). On the harmonised measure the  forecast is more uncertain since this index is liable to broad monthly  movements due to the new classification of seasonal products; we  estimate +0.8% mom. Inflation should rise one-tenth to 3.1% yoy on the  national measure and to 3.7% yoy harmonised. October might mark the  maximum impact of the VAT hike (in force since 17 September).<br \/><strong>&nbsp; Italy. <\/strong>The  unemployment rate could be steady at 7.9% in September. The jobless  rate has been on a clear downtrend in the last 18 months, from the 8.7%  high recorded in April 2010.<br \/>However, the coming months are unlikely  to bring a further improvement since the economic stagnation will put a  halt to the labour market recovery.<br \/><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp; The Chicago PMI is expected to be broadly steady at 60 in October, vs. 60.4 in September.<br \/>The  Beige Book was moderately positive in respect of activity in the  Chicago district and the positive signals from the auto sector should  help keep manufacturing confidence high in October.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Tuesday 1 November<br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  Construction spending is expected to be up 0.3% mom in September,  following the substantial gain recorded in August (+1.4% mom). New  starts were up 15% mom at 658k in September, vs. 572k in August, their  highest level since April 2010; nonetheless, completed units show a far  smaller increase.<br \/>&nbsp; The manufacturing ISM should be little changed in  October, rising to 52 from 51.6 in September. The September survey  breakdown was relatively positive and the regional surveys already out,  namely Philly Fed and Empire, show improvements. The Richmond Fed index  remained in negative territory, at -6 as in September, and confirms the  Beige Book indications:<br \/>the recovery is very moderate and uneven across the various regions.<br \/>&nbsp;  Auto sales should show a small gain to 13.2M units ann. in October  after the vigorous September bounce to 13.1M units ann. The preliminary  indications based on dealership data compiled by JD Power in the first  two weeks of the month are positive.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Wednesday 2 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  The final reading of the manufacturing PMI for October might confirm  the flash estimate of 47.3 (third straight month below 50), vs. 48.5 in  September. The first estimate for Italy might show the PMI slipping to  48 from 48.3. In general, the level of the manufacturing PMI (notably  the balance between new orders and inventories) is now consistent with,  at best, economic stagnation in industry.<br \/>&nbsp; Germany. The unemployment  rate might remain steady at 6.9% in October, its lowest since 1991. The  jobless rate should fall further by around 15k. In the coming months,  we expect broad labour market stabilisation. The incipient cycle  slowdown is not yet sufficient drive up unemployment in the largest  economy of the Euro area.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  The ADP estimate of new non-farm payrolls in the private sector October  is expected by the market to stand at +100k units, vs. +91k in  September.<br \/>&nbsp; The FOMC meeting, followed by Bernanke\u2019s press  conference, should end with a downward revision to growth and an upward  revision to the unemployment rate. The committee should make changes to  the communication strategy, according greater weight to the maximum  employment goal, interpreted in light of the long-term macroeconomic  projections. This change might be accompanied by an explicit policy  reaction function, according to which the Fed might signal its intention  not to touch rates until the unemployment rate nears an equilibrium  range; it is also possible the Fed will make the case for a fresh  quantitative easing drive to fulfil its mandate in respect of full  employment.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Thursday 3 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  ECB meeting. We do not expect a sudden change of course with the  installation of Draghi: the ECB will have to continue defending Euro  area stability via the government bond purchase programme, justifying it  on the principle of full separation and the need to ensure monetary  policy transmission. The risks of a recession early in 2012 are  increasing: the ECB will signal likely revisions to the macroeconomic  outlook and might trail a first refi rate cut in December.<br \/>The  minimum level of 1% will be reached by March 2012. The meeting should  furnish details on the new covered bond purchase programme.<br \/>G20  summit in Cannes, at which European leaders will arrive boosted by the  debt crisis response plan. The meeting is important since in the  spin-off of the EFSF, which will be funded using both public and private  capital, the IMF and emerging countries might also play a part.<br \/><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  The non-manufacturing ISM is expected to rise to 54 in October from 53  in September. The Richmond Fed service sector survey has deteriorated  for firms in sectors other than distribution, but the Beige Book  indications were slightly positive and point to a small overall  improvement.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 4 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp;  The final reading of the composite PMI for October might broadly  confirm the flash estimate of 47.2, coming in at 47.3 (second month  below 50), vs. 49.1 in September. The easing of the financial tensions  in the banking sector might produce a small revision to the service  index, to 47.5 from the flash estimate of 47.2, still heavily down on  48.8 in September.<br \/>&nbsp; Producer prices should be up three-tenths in  September, giving year-on-year PPI slowing from 5.9% to 5.8%. The easing  of upstream pressures in the production chain should continue through  the coming months.<br \/>&nbsp; Germany. Factory orders might fall three-tenths  in September after the contractions recorded in July and August.  Year-on-year, orders would still accelerate to 7.1% from 3.6%. For  several months now the surveys have been flagging a slowdown in orders,  notably from abroad, in Germany too.<br \/><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&nbsp; The  October employment report should confirm positive employment growth,  albeit insufficient to bring down the unemployment rate. New non-farm  payrolls should total 125k, in light of the indications on new jobless  claims, roughly stable around 400k in recent months, if stripped of the  exceptional effects of the Verizon strike and the temporary freeze on  public sector employees in Wisconsin. Job creation in the private sector  should amount to 120k, roughly in line with the average for the last  three months (+117k). The public sector should show a small, temporary  increase in payrolls due to seasonal adjustment issues; this is by no  means a reversal of the negative trend under way since the start of the  recession. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 9.1%, with  upside risks: payrolls as measured by the household survey have grown by  364k avg. in the last two months, well in excess of both the  three-month average (230k) and the six-month average (+26k): a slowdown  in this aggregate on the same participation rate might push the  unemployment rate up to 9.2%.<br \/>Hourly wages are expected to be up 0.2% mom, as in September.<\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 31-04 November 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/809","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=809"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/809\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=809"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=809"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=809"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}