{"id":817,"date":"2011-11-07T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-07T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/11\/07\/makrooekonomische-daten-07-11-november-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-11-07T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-11-07T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-07-11-november-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-07-11-november-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 07-11 November 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 07-11 <span id=\"result_box\" class=\"short_text\" lang=\"de\"><span class=\"hps\">November<\/span><\/span> 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">In  the Euro area, the focus will be on the ECOFIN and possible additional  details on the bailout plan. The industrial production data for  September will show the first real signs of the crisis. We expect  Italian output to plummet (-3.3% mom), while Germany and France should  be down 1.0% mom. Spain publishes its advance 3Q11 GDP growth estimates,  which we expect to show virtual stagnation in line with the indications  from the Bank of Spain.<br \/>The coming week is thin on data in the  United States. The trade deficit in September should be little changed  from August, resulting in an increased contribution to growth in the  third quarter.<br \/>Import prices should be down slightly in October.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 7 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Retail sales are expected to be down 0.4% mom in September after a  slightly positive performance in July and August. The figure would leave  sales up 0.2% qoq in 3Q11 and would be consistent with modest aggregate  consumption growth in the summer.<br \/>&#8211; Germany. Industrial production  should be down again in September (-0.9% mom), following the August  contraction (-1.0% mom), which was due to a partial slowdown from an  outstandingly strong July (due to the late closure of schools). In  September, on the other hand, the contraction is more genuine and due to  the decline in orders flagged up by the PMI and IFO. Given the strong  entry into the quarter, German output should be up +2.4% qoq in 3Q11.  GDP should therefore be up at least 0.4% qoq vs. 0.1% qoq in 2Q11. We  expect German GDP to be broadly stagnant in 4Q11.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Tuesday 8 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Germany. German exports are expected to be down 1.0% mom in September  after the robust gain in August. The sentiment surveys signal a slowdown  in export orders at the end of the summer, and this trend gathered pace  in October.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 9 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  France. The investment survey will offer valuable insight into the  repercussions of the crisis on business spending decisions. We expect  investment plans to be pared back significantly given the deteriorated  demand-side conditions and the considerable uncertainty.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Thursday 10 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Italy. Industrial production is expected to correct by 3.3% mom in  September after +4.3% mom in August, and the figure might even be  revised down since it is likely skewed by the seasonal adjustment issues  typical of this month. Production should be up 0.8% qoq, which would  ensure a recovery in GDP in 3Q11 of at least 0.1% qoq. The trend in  orders, coupled with the trend in inventories, signals that, at least  through to year-end 2011 and early 2012, it is reasonable to expect a  further slowdown in productive activity and GDP growth.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  France Industrial production is expected to be down 1.0% mom in  September after the summer gains. The sentiment surveys signal a sharp  slowdown in orders and output over the summer months. The figure would  still leave production up 1.5% qoq thanks to the strong entry into the  quarter.<br \/>&#8211; France. Consumer prices should be up 0.2% mom. Inflation  is estimated at 2.3% yoy vs. 2.2% yoy before. On the harmonised measure,  inflation is estimated at 2.4% yoy, unchanged from September. Pressures  on consumer prices are largely exogenous and, in October particularly,  should stem from food prices, since petrol prices suggest a zero or  slightly negative contribution. French inflation should drop below 2% at  year-end 2011. In 2012, the trend in consumer prices is expected to  average 1.5% yoy, although we do not rule out upside risks since hikes  in direct taxation are likely. The government has revised its growth  estimates for 2012 to 1.0% from 1.75% before; an additional package of  measures totalling some EUR 9Bn will be needed to meet the budget  targets. The measures might be approved by year-end and might include a  VAT hike.<br \/>United States<br \/>&#8211; Import prices are expected to be down  -0.1% mom in October, after +0.4% mom in September. The expected fall  should be due to the exceptionally sharp correction in the oil price at  the start of the month, vs. the levels seen in the first half of  September.<br \/>&#8211; The trade balance is expected to widen moderately to USD  -46.5Bn in September from USD &#8211; 45.6Bn in August, with exports slowing  and a more subdued trend in imports. On the exports front, commercial  aircraft should be up, following the steep fall in August. With regard  to imports, oil should be broadly steady, while autos should slow as the  trend stabilises in the wake of the Japanese earthquake. The BEA has  assumed a widening of the real deficit in September: thus, in the event  of stabilisation close to the August level, the contribution of the  foreign channel to 3Q11 GDP growth would be larger than that implied in  the advance estimate (0.2 pp).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 11 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Spain. The 3Q11 advance estimate should show GDP stagnating after 0.2%  in 2Q11. The stagnation might continue through to year-end and growth  could even slip into recession territory in 2012. The indications on the  public finances are hardly encouraging and the government that wins the  20 November elections will likely have to push through an additional  package totalling around two percentage points of GDP. We expect GDP  growth in Spain to amount, at best, to 0.3% in 2012 after 0.7% in 2011.<\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 07-11 November 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/817","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=817"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/817\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}