{"id":821,"date":"2011-11-11T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-11T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/11\/11\/makrooekonomische-daten-14-18-november-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-11-11T16:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-11-11T16:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-14-18-november-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-14-18-november-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 14-18 November 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 14-18 <span id=\"result_box\" class=\"short_text\" lang=\"de\"><span class=\"hps\">November<\/span><\/span> 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">In the Euro area, the advance estimate of 3Q11 GDP  should show the first effects of the crisis on the real economy. We  estimate GDP growth of 0.4% qoq in Germany and Holland and 0.3% qoq for  France and Euro area average<\/span>. <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  outlook is for the cycle to weaken further around year-end. Euro area  industrial production should be down 2.5% mom in September, given the  disastrous trend in Germany, Italy and France. The ZEW survey will be  impacted by the markets\u2019 performance this last month, falling from -48.3  to -55 in November. Euro area should be confirmed at 3.0% yoy.<\/span><\/div>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Next  week brings a slew of data in the United States. On the activity front,  the November surveys and the industrial production figures for October  should confirm the positive dynamic in the manufacturing sector. October  retail sales should be up slightly after the strong gain recorded in  September; new starts and building permits should confirm a broadly  stagnant residential building sector. On prices, the CPI and PPI should  show falls in October as a result of energy and modest growth in the  core indices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Monday 14 November<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Industrial  production is expected to be down 2.5% mom in September, given the  disastrous performance in virtually every Eurozone country. Output  should still be up 1.0% qoq in 3Q11 given the robust gains in July and  August. We expect further falls at year-end, in line with the confidence  survey indications.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Tuesday 15 November<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro  area GDP should be up 0.3% qoq in 3Q11 after 0.1% qoq in 2Q11. The  recovery will be short-lived since we expect stagnation or a mild  recession between now and year-end. Next year Euro area GDP should  expand by 0. 6% at best, after 1.1% this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Germany.  German GDP is expected to expand by 0.4% qoq and 2.3% yoy. There will  be no details but the driver should once again be export demand and  moderately resilient investments. We project 4Q11 growth of just 0.1%  qoq. Germany will slow to 0.9% in 2012 from 2.9% in 2011. Germany. The  ZEW index will be down again in November, falling to -55 from -48.3 in  October, given the ongoing uncertainty on the financial markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">France.  French GDP is expected to grow by 0.3% qoq (1.5% yoy) in 3Q11 after  stalling in the spring. We expect a contribution of 0.3% qoq from  domestic demand thanks to a partial recovery in private consumption.  Exports should add 0.1% to the quarter-on-quarter dynamic, while  inventories should be down. The real and confidence data are consistent  with stagnant GDP in the fourth quarter. In yearly average terms, the  French economy should slow to 0.6%, from an estimated 1.6% for 2011.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  October PPI is expected to be down -0.1% mom, after +0.8% mom in  September. The energy component should be key to the modest trend in the  overall index. The core PPI should be up +0.2% mom, in line with trend.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Retail  sales are expected to be up 0.3% mom in October, slowing from +1.1% mom  before. In October auto sales should be a positive factor, though far  less so than in September: sales ex auto should be up 0.2% mom. Weekly  sales were generally weak, partly on account of the inclement weather.  In real terms, the data should be slightly positive, in a month in which  prices are expected to be up just 0.1% mom.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  NY Fed Empire index is expected to improve to 1 in November from -8.48  in October, gradually closing the gap that opened up with the ISM. The  October Empire breakdown was more positive than was indicated by the  composite index, with orders, deliveries and payrolls above zero.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Wednesday 16 November<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  CPI should be unchanged in October, after rising by +0.3% mom in  September. The core CPI should show another very moderate gain of +0.1%  mom, as in September. Energy should be down heavily, contributing to the  moderation of the headline index. Apparel should be down again, the  second straight fall after several months of average gains of 1.2% mom,  on account of commodities and price hikes in exporter nations. The  housing sector will show an acceleration in rents, while notional rents  should stabilise around 0.1% mom. Auto prices should turn moderate again  after the uptrend seen in the summer months on the back of the  supply-side problems due to the Japanese earthquake.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Industrial  production should be up a robust +0.4% mom in October, in light of the  positive indications on hours worked in manufacturing seen in the  employment report. Manufacturing sector output should be up 0.5% mom,  despite more modest growth in auto activity and an ISM production index  around the 50 mark. Utilities should hold back the overall output  dynamic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Thursday 17 November<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Inflation  should be confirmed at 3.0% yoy in October, giving a month-on-month  movement of 0.3% mom. The dynamic ex food and energy is expected to be  steady at 1.9% yoy. Euro area inflation is expected to fall back below  2% by spring 2012; the economic slowdown will hold back costs, wages and  prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">New  starts should fall to 610k in October, only partially eroding the surge  to 658k in September. The October fall should be due to the volatile  multi-family unit segment, which was behind the September bounce.  Permits are expected to improve to 605k in October, from 589k in  September, here too on the back of movements in the multi-family  segment. Overall, the trend in the residential building sector remains  virtually stagnant if measured on the single-family unit segment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  Philadelphia Fed index should correct to 5 in November from 8.7 in  October. Following the weakness seen in August and September, in October  the index comfortably regained the June-July levels. The October survey  breakdown was positive, showing a robust bounce in orders and  deliveries; however, the October recovery returned the index well above  the level suggested by the relationship with the ISM.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 14-18 November 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=821"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/821\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}