{"id":827,"date":"2011-11-18T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-18T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/11\/18\/makrooekonomische-daten-21-25-november-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-11-18T16:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-11-18T16:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-21-25-november-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-21-25-november-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 21-25 November 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 21-25 <span id=\"result_box\" class=\"short_text\" lang=\"de\"><span class=\"hps\">November<\/span><\/span> 2011 (Englisch) <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Due   out in the Euro area are the remaining November confidence surveys. All   the main indices (Euro area PMI, German IFO, French INSEE, NBB survey,   business and consumer confidence in Italy) should show a further dip in   sentiment in the wake of the financial crisis. The German GDP  breakdown  will show that the summer bounce was due to domestic demand,  although  this should peter out between 4Q11 and 1Q12.<br \/>The  macroeconomic data  should not alter the outlook of a moderate recovery  in the United  States. The minutes of the FOMC meeting should confirm  the committee\u2019s  readiness to launch a possible new purchasing  programme. The small dip  in orders and existing home sales in October  does not alter the  moderately positive outlook for the manufacturing  sector and the ongoing  stagnation in construction; personal income and  spending should show  moderate gains in both real and nominal terms.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 21 November<br \/><\/strong><\/div>\n<p> <strong>United States<\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;   Existing home sales are expected to fall to 4.8M units ann. in October   from 4.91M in September. The pending home sales figures, down in   September, point to a moderate slowdown in sales. The market might be   buoyed by the fall in mortgage rates following the announcement of the   change in the Fed\u2019s debt policy, with the reinvestment of maturing MBS   in the same class of securities.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 22 November<br \/><\/strong><\/div>\n<p> <strong>Euro area<\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;   Consumer confidence is expected to fall to -21 in November from -19.9   before, eroded by the ongoing flow of bad macroeconomic news. The   deepening crisis might prompt households to postpone spending plans,   notably in respect of durables.<\/div>\n<p> <strong>United States<\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The   second 3Q11 GDP estimate should confirm growth of 2.5% qoq ann., with   an upward revision to the foreign channel contribution offset by a   similar downward revision to the contribution from inventories.<br \/>&#8211; The   Fed publishes the minutes of the early November FOMC meeting. The   minutes will shed light on the views of the participants regarding a   possible new securities purchasing programme. Specifically, some   indication might be given on the timing and macroeconomic conditions   that would trigger further monetary stimulus. The signals on the US   economy have improved since the date of the meeting, but the risks and   tensions on the markets stemming from the European crisis have increased   sharply. In light of the forecasts for the labour market, for now the   central projection is for possible MBS purchases by the end of 1Q12.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 23 November<br \/><\/strong><\/div>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; France. The INSEE index is expected to fall to 96 in November from 97 before. Expectations<br \/>should be down amid shrinking demand and rising inventories, as signalled by the survey in<br \/>past months. The French economy will likely stagnate between 4Q11 and 1Q12.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; The composite PMI should remain in recession territory for the   third straight month in November (our estimate 46 vs. 46.5 in October).   The manufacturing index might fall further to 46.3 from 47.1; the   service sector index, hit harder by the banking crisis, might slide even   lower (our estimate 45.9 vs. 46.4). The level of the PMI indices is  now  consistent with GDP in negative territory.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Durable goods orders are expected to be   down -1.2% mom in October, largely due to the correction in the   volatile commercial aircraft sector. Ex transportation, orders should   correct slightly by -0.1% mom. The trend in orders should however remain   moderately positive, in light of the data on orders in the surveys.   Specifically, orders in the ISM survey rose to 52.4 in October, after   three months below 50 (3Q11 avg. 59.5).<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Personal spending should be up 0.3% mom in October on the back   of sales growth of +0.5% mom and the fall in the price of petrol.   Personal income should be up 0.2% mom in light of the data on hours   worked and wages published in the employment report.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Consumer confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan in   November (final figure) should rise slightly to 64.8 from the advance   estimate of 64.2. In mid-November the survey recorded gains in both   components (coincident and expectations), while inflation expectations   five years forward continued to trend down (to 2.6% from a high of 3% in   June). All the confidence indices have picked up from the summer lows   but remain flat: uncertainty over fiscal policy will again make itself   felt in the coming months with the deadline of the payroll tax cut fast   approaching (end-December).<br \/><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 24 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Germany. The second   reading of 3Q11 GDP should confirm the preliminary estimate of 0.5% qoq   and 2.6% yoy (around twice the growth rate of the Euro area average).   The breakdown should show the biggest contribution to growth coming from   the rebound in consumption (our estimate 0.5% vs. -0.7% qoq);   investments also accelerated (1% vs. 0.4% qoq), although construction   shrank by a further tenth. International trade should have made a   negative contribution to growth due to imports (our estimate 1.5%)   outstripping exports (our estimate 1.1%). After the summer bounce,   Germany should slow to virtually zero growth around YE11 and 1Q12.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Germany. We expect the IFO index to fall to 105.8 in November   from 106.4 before, still leaving it above the long-term mean (100.6).   The coincident index is estimated at 116 vs. 116.7 before (long-term   mean: 123.3). Expectations 3\/6 months fwd will likely correct to 95.9   from 97 given the deteriorating demand-side conditions and the growing   uncertainty. The IFO remains consistent with German economic expansion,   although this will likely slow in 4Q11\/1Q12 from 0.5% qoq in 3Q11.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Italia. Consumer confidence is expected to fall further (for   the sixth straight month), slipping to 92 in November from 92.9 in   October. If confirmed, the figure would take household sentiment past   the all-time low (in the almost 30 years of the series) recorded in July   2008 (92.7). Expectations, which have in the past proved a good   consumption predictor, signals clear recession risks.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; In Belgium economic confidence is expected to fall to -11.5   from -10.4. Of particular interest will be the breakdown of the   manufacturing survey, notably the trend in export orders, which is   considered a leading indicator of trends in German industry and   consequently in the Euro area as a whole. In any case, the contagion of   the financial crisis to countries like Belgium (spread just below   300bps) might cause business lending flows to slow.<br \/><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Markets closed for Thanksgiving.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 21-25 November 2011 (Englisch) .&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=827"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/827\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}