{"id":833,"date":"2011-11-25T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-11-25T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/11\/25\/makrooekonomische-daten-28-november-2-dezember-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-11-25T16:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-11-25T16:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-28-november-2-dezember-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-28-november-2-dezember-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 28 November &#8211; 2 Dezember 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Euro area, the November data should show inflation cooling to   2.7% yoy in Germany and to 2.9% yoy in Spain, but steady at 3.8% yoy in   Italy and at 3.0% yoy in Euro area average terms. Inflation should   moderate towards 2% from early 2012.<span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span> <span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The EU Commission index of economic confidence should be broadly steady  at 98.7 in November, given the improvement in household sentiment and in  services, as shown in the national surveys. The unemployment rate  should be unchanged at 10.2% in the Euro area and at 7% in Germany,  although it is expected to rise during 2012 in the wake of the economic  slowdown. Retail sales should be up 0.1% mom in Germany and up 0.2% mom  in France in October. <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The coming week is packed with data in  the United States. The November data should confirm the gradual  improvement in activity: the employment report should show an  acceleration in the employment dynamic and a stable unemployment rate;  auto sales should be up again, and the manufacturing ISM is expected to  improve. October new home sales are expected to be up, while  construction spending should also show a modest gain. The Beige Book  should confirm moderately diffuse growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 28 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro area. Money supply is expected to  be up 3.3% yoy in October vs. 3.1% yoy before. We expect M2 and M3 \u2013 M2  to accelerate further, while overnight deposits should be down again.  The three-month moving average is estimated at 3.1% yoy vs. 2.6% yoy  before.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The data from the Laender  should be consistent with a 0.1% yoy contraction in consumer prices in  November, on easing energy pressures and benign seasonality. Inflation  is expected to be down two-tenths at 2.3% yoy on the national measure  and at 2.7% yoy harmonised.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Retail sales are expected to be  broadly steady in October (0.1% mom) following the +0.3% mom posted in  September. The consumption dynamic surprised over the summer months by  rising +0.8% qoq. We expect moderation between now and year-end 2011.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">New home sales should rise to 320k in  October from 313k in September. The NAHB survey showed an improvement,  while new starts rose. September recorded a surge in sales (+5.7% mom),  which limits the level expected in October. Even with a small increase  in sales in October, the sector has been virtually steady in a narrow  range for around one year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 29 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro area. The EU Commission index of  economic confidence is expected to be broadly steady at 94.7 in  November, given the improved sentiment among households and in services,  as shown by the national surveys. The index remains at historical lows  and the improvement in services sentiment seen in November may be no  more than a pause.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spain. The preliminary estimates should  show inflation cooling to 2.9% yoy from 3.0% yoy; the gradual easing of  inflation pressures should pick up from January baring fiscal measures  that include hikes in controlled prices and VAT.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence as measured by the  Conference Board is expected to improve to 46 in November from 39.8 in  October. Confidence should return close to the September levels (46.4),  recouping the large fall posted in October. In November the expectation  is for an improvement in both current conditions (which had fallen to  26.3, their lowest since November 2010) and expectations (which had  fallen to 48.7, their lowest since March 2009).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The other confidence indices have picked up since the October plunge.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 30 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">November inflation should be unchanged  from October at 3.0% yoy; energy will make only a small contribution to  the month-on-month dynamic, while pressures might also come from fresh  food. The inflation dynamic will fall back below 2% by June as the  adverse base effect lapses. The economic slowdown will help cool  pressures on costs, pay and prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The unemployment rate is estimated at  10.2% in Euro area average terms, unchanged from October. The labour  market will certainly be impacted by the economic slowdown; indeed, we  expect the unemployment rate to rise to 10.6% by September 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Unemployment is expected to be  up slightly in November, by +7k. The unemployment rate will stick at  7.0%. German unemployment might rise over the next 12 months since the  country will not be immune from the economic slowdown.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. The month-on-month unemployment  rate is estimated at 8.3% in October, unchanged from September. The  stagnation of economic activity and the introduction of tight fiscal  policy measures will exacerbate the labour market deterioration seen in  September. Accordingly, we have revised up the projected unemployment  rate for the coming years. However, we believe the jobless rate is  unlikely to top the highs recorded during the recession (8.7% in April  2010).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Retail sales should make up some  of the ground lost in September, expanding by 0.2% mom, thanks mainly  to apparel and other manufactured goods.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Consumer prices should be  unchanged in November, leaving the year-on-year dynamic steady at 3.8%  yoy on the harmonised measure and at 3.4% yoy on the national measure.  Some of the energy-induced pressures should have eased in November.  Italian inflation is estimated at 2.6% yoy by June 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The ADP estimate of new non-farm  payrolls in the private sector is expected to improve to +130k in  November from +110k in October.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Productivity growth in the third quarter  should be revised down to 2.5% qoq from the advance estimate of +3.1%  qoq. The unit labour cost is expected to fall -2.1% qoq.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Chicago PMI should improve to 59 in  November from 58.4 in October. The breakdown showed some signs of  weakness (orders at 61.3 vs. 65.3), but the indications from the auto  sector and the signs from the manufacturing sector in general remain  positive.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Beige Book ahead of the December  FOMC meeting should report some tentative signs of improvement in  activity and in the diffusion of growth. The report should not alter the  FOMC\u2019s view of a still fragile recovery exposed to significant downside  risks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 1 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>France. The 3Q11 unemployment rate should be steady at 9.6%.  Unemployment might rise to 10% in France during 2012 on the back of the  slowdown.<\/p>\n<p>The final PMI estimates for November should confirm a fall in the  manufacturing index to 46.4 from 47.1 in October. The crisis will likely  further depress the sentiment indices and real activity around  year-end.<\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Construction spending should be up 0.2%  mom in October. New starts increased but activity remains sluggish, with  property prices still falling.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The manufacturing ISM is expected to  rise slightly to 51.5 in November, from 50.8 in October. The regional  surveys are consistent with a moderate improvement in the national  index. The data would confirm expectations of 4Q11 growth around 2.5%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Auto sales are expected to expand  further to 13.5M units ann. in November, based on the positive  indications from dealerships in the first half of the month. The uptrend  in auto sales will lend support to consumption in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 2 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Non-farm payrolls are expected to be up  125k in November, slightly above the average for the last four months  (117k). The movement in October was 80k and might be revised up. New  jobless claims have trended down slightly in recent weeks. The  employment dynamic might improve a little if temporary hires for the  Christmas season increase. The sector surveys signalled improved job  market conditions in November. New non-farm payrolls in the private  sector should be up 145k. The unemployment rate is estimated at 9%, as  in October. Hourly wages are expected to be up 0.2% mom, in line with  trend.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area, the November data should show inflation cooling to 2.7% yoy in Germany and to 2.9% yoy in Spain, but steady at 3.8% yoy in Italy and at 3.0% yoy in Euro area average terms. Inflation should moderate towards 2% from early 2012..&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}