{"id":839,"date":"2011-12-02T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-12-02T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/12\/02\/makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-dezember-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-12-02T16:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-12-02T16:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-dezember-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-dezember-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 5- 9 Dezember 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Euro area the focus will be on  the two key events, namely ECB  Meeting and European Council, on 8-9  December, which might prove a  turning-point (positive or negative, if  the outcome is disappointing)  in the debt crisis..<span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span> <span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The October industrial production  figures might be little changed month-on-month, whilst confirming the  slowdown year-on-year. Retail sales and PMI indices should be in  recession territory.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The coming week is thin on data in the  United States. The non-manufacturing ISM for November should confirm  that the service sector has underperformed manufacturing in this  recovery. The October trade balance should show the deficit largely  unchanged, while household confidence should confirm a return to the  early summer levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 5 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail sales are expected to bounce by  0.4% mom in October, mainly on the back of the growth recorded in both  Germany and France. However, the trend in consumer confidence suggests  fresh weakening in the coming months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The final reading of the composite PMI  for November might confirm the flash estimate of 47.2 (vs. 46.5 in  October but below 50 for the third month). The services index should  also confirm the first reading of 47.8 (vs. 46.4 in October). The levels  of the index are consistent with a for now mild recession in the Euro  area.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. The cabinet unveils the  crisis-fighting package, which could be passed by parliament by  Christmas. A package totalling around EUR 20Bn is mooted, the aim being  to achieve budget balance in 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The non-manufacturing ISM is expected to  see little change, at 53.2 in November from 52.9 in October. Activity  in the service sector should be expanding but not accelerating: in this  recovery final demand for goods is growing at a robust pace, in line  with past recoveries, but the dynamic in services is far more modest and  well below average. The breakdown of the October survey was less  positive than emerged from the composite index; last month activity and  orders were down heavily on September, whilst remaining well above 50.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 6 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The breakdown of 3Q11 GDP should confirm  the flash estimate of 0.2% qoq. Year-on-year growth would slow to 1.4%  from 1.6%. The quarter should show growth in both consumption (estimate  0.3% qoq) and investments (0.4% qoq), while public spending should be  unchanged and exports may have made a positive contribution of  two-tenths. The point is that around year-end 2011\/start-2012 there is a  real risk of slightly negative GDP.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Factory orders might bounce (by  1.5% mom) in October after three negative scorse in the summer months.  The trend would still be downward, as shown by the slump in the  year-on-year figure (our estimate 1.7% vs. 2.4%). For some months now  the surveys have been signalling a slowdown in orders for Germany too,  notably from abroad.<\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 7 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Industrial production is expected  to be down again in October, falling by an estimated &#8211; 0.2% vs. -4.8%  mom in September. This would imply a year-on-year contraction of -2.8%  (both raw and adjusted for working days), not far off the previous  month\u2019s figure. 4Q11 should show a sharp contraction in industrial  production (and GDP), which might continue into 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Industrial production is  expected to bounce by 0.2% mom in October after the falls recorded in  the previous two months. However, the trend remains downward (moderate  cooling for now): year-on-year growth is estimated at 3.4% vs. 5.4%  before. In Germany too industry should make a negative contribution to  GDP in the current quarter.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 8 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ECB meeting. The European crisis has  degenerated significantly this last month. The news on EFSF II from the  ECOFIN is not sufficient to change the course of events in the near  term. The ECB remains the only institution that can act immediately. The  announcement of a structured securities purchase programme would be  fully justified, but we fear it will not yet secure a broad consensus on  the Council. The ECB might introduce a 24-month or 36-month auction to  ease the bank funding issues,. We expect a 25bps cut and rhetoric that  clears the way for rates below the significant 1% mark by start-2012,  since the repercussions of the crisis on the cycle risk being far more  disastrous than the business and household confidence indices are able  to capture.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 9 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The European Council could mark a  turning point in the debt crisis. It is to be hoped that, in exchange  for tighter fiscal control over member states, progress is made with a  European vehicle (possibly with IMF involvement) that may rapidly  intervene as a purchaser of substantial volumes on the government bond  markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Industrial production is  expected to be down -0.2% mom in October after the steep contraction in  September (-1.7% mom). Year-on-year growth would still jump to 2.7% from  2.3%. In any case, the sentiment surveys continue to signal a sharp  slowdown in orders and output, impacting on the coming months.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The October trade balance should show a  balance little changed from September at USD &#8211; 43Bn vs. USD -43.1Bn.  Both exports and imports should be down, partly on account of the fall  in prices. Export volumes should be positive for autos and machinery. On  the import front, the moderate fall in the oil price should moderate  the dynamic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence as measured by the  Univ. of Michigan should stabilise at 64 (preliminary) in December,  after three straight gains that returned the index to the July levels.  The marked improvement in the Conference Board index in November closed  much of the gap that had opened up between the two sentiment indicators  in recent months. One key element of the Univ. of Michigan survey will  be inflation expectations: the Fed is watching expectations closely to  assess the case for expanding the monetary stimulus early in 2012.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area the focus will be on the two key events, namely ECB Meeting and European Council, on 8-9 December, which might prove a turning-point (positive or negative, if the outcome is disappointing) in the debt crisis&#8230;&#8230;.&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=839"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/839\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}