{"id":845,"date":"2011-12-12T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-12-12T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/12\/12\/makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-dezember-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-12-12T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-12-12T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-dezember-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-dezember-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 12- 16 Dezember 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">In the Euro area, the ongoing uncertainty over the crisis in the second half of November will have further dented confidence. <\/span>We expect the December ZEW to fall to -59. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">In France, the INSEE index is put at 95 vs. 97 before.<\/span>..<span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span>  <span lang=\"en-GB\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">October Euro area  industrial production is expected to be broadly stable reflecting the  ample divergence within the area. The Eurostat detailed estimate should  confirm Euro area inflation at 3.0% yoy and show an underlying dynamic  at 2.0% yoy, unchanged from October. In the summer months, employment  and labour cost should have slowed from the first half of the year.<\/span><\/div>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The coming week is packed with data and events in the United States. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  first December manufacturing surveys should show improvements. November  retail sales should be solid, while industrial production is expected  to be little changed. November prices will be impacted by the fall in  energy prices, while the inflation dynamic should remain modest  month-on-month. The FOMC meeting will likely prepare the market for  major changes in the communication strategy which should come into force  in January.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 13 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">Consumer  prices should have remained broadly steady in November, thanks to the  cooling of energy prices. Inflation is expected to fall by one-tenth to  2.2% yoy on the national measure and to 2.4% yoy on the harmonised  measure. French inflation should fall back below 2% as of February-March  2012.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The ZEW index  should have been further hit by the market turbulence, falling to -59  from -55.2 before, not far off the July 2008 low (-63.9). <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The present situation index is estimated at 30 vs. 34.2 before.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">November  retail sales should be up 0.7% mom. The Thanksgiving weekend sales data  were very positive, although overall the results of weekly sales during  the month were mixed. One strength should once again be autos, which  were up 3% mom in November. Petrol sales should be down slightly on the  price effect. Sales ex auto are expected to surge by +0.5% mom. The  acceleration in sales in 2011 vs. the corresponding month during the  years of recession and tentative recovery might boost the  seasonally-adjusted dynamic this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  FOMC meeting should clear the way for major changes in the  communication strategy which should come into force in January. The  committee will again discuss the changes already debated in November.  The December statement will likely signal that as of January the  information annexed to the macroeconomic projections will be  considerably expanded. According to the minutes, January should bring a  new statement giving guidance on the monetary policy goals in respect of  prices and unemployment, together with the rates path underlying the  macro projections. Should the arrival of a revolution in communication  strategy be announced, this would clear the way to signalling rates on  hold probably through to yearend 2014 and to preparing a possible QE3  programme to be implemented after January 2012, if appropriate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 14 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Industrial  production should have stagnated in October; if confirmed, the figure  would leave the drag-on effect for 4Q11 at -0,8% qoq. The sentiment  surveys continue to signal a deterioration in the macro situation at  around year-end\/early 2012.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Import  prices should be up 0.3% mom in November, after -0.6% mom in October.  The oil price should show a small increase after four straight  contractions. The trend dynamic is cooling and should fall below 10%  yoy, from 11% yoy in October.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Thursday 15 December<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  Eurostat detailed estimate should confirm Euro area inflation at 3.0%  yoy and show the underlying dynamic at 2.0% yoy, unchanged from October.  Euro area inflation is expected to fall back below 2% by June 2012. The  abundant slack in the economy should contain the pressures on costs,  pay and prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">We  expect the Euro area employment dynamic to slow to 0.2% qoq from 0.3%  qoq before. The crisis will impact on the labour market dynamic during  2012 and a fall in payrolls in the course of next year cannot be ruled  out.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  PPI should be up 0.1% mom in November, after -0.3% mom in October. The  trend in prices highlighted by the prices component of the ISM is  unequivocally downward, after the upward pressures largely due to  commodity prices. Energy in November should have a slight negative  effect, while the core rate might show a modest bounce of +0.2% mom,  driven by the auto sector, following the steep falls in auto prices seen  in the previous three months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  Empire index should continue to rise, climbing to 8 in December from  0.6 in November. The gap between Empire and ISM should narrow, after  several months in which the NY Fed survey had remained well below the  level expected on the basis of the historical relationship between the  two surveys. The manufacturing sector will continue to show solid  expansion. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Industrial  production is expected to be up a modest 0.1% mom in November in light  of the relatively weak activity data implied in the hours worked figures  contained in the employment report. The data partly reflect the effects  on supply due to the floods in Thailand, notably in the auto sector.  Other sectors too might be adversely affected, albeit to a lesser  degree. The ISM survey showed a large gain in November in output, which  rose to 56.6 from 50.1, but the data are affected by the adjustment  following the Japanese earthquake.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  Philadelphia Fed index should rise to 8.5 in December, from 3.6 in  November. Last month the survey recorded falling levels not just in the  general index but also in several components (notably, orders and  deliveries), whereas on the payrolls front the index was up. The  indications from the manufacturing sector have remained generally  positive, and we therefore expect an upturn in the index in line with  the level seen in November for the ISM.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Friday 16 December<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  labour cost dynamic should have remained roughly at the 2Q11 levels,  expanding by 3.4% yoy vs. 3.6% yoy before. During 2012 we expect costs  to cool on the back of the cycle slowdown and only marginally from  measures intended to turn around productivity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">France.  The manufacturing business confidence index should have slipped further  to 95 from 97 before. The composite indicator is back below the  long-term mean and is consistent with a slowdown in manufacturing  activity at year-end. The index is still well above the March 2009 low  (69).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  CPI should be unchanged month-on-month in November, showing a fall in  energy due to the correction in the petrol price. The core index should  be up 0.2% mom on the ongoing acceleration in housing, and notably  rents. Auto prices should stabilise after the previous month\u2019s  correction. In trend terms, the core CPI should show a fresh increase to  2.2% yoy, from 2.1% yoy in October, returning to the level seen in  October 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. 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The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area, the ongoing uncertainty over the crisis in the second half of November will have further dented confidence. We expect the December ZEW to fall to -59. 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