{"id":851,"date":"2011-12-16T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-12-16T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/12\/16\/makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-dezember-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-12-16T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-12-16T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-dezember-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-dezember-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 19- 23 Dezember 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Due out in the Euro area are the remaining December confidence surveys.   All the main indices (German IFO, NBB survey, consumer confidence in   Italy and the entire eurozone) may show a fall after some unexpected   improvements the previous month (not marking the start of trend in our   view, merely a temporary bounce)&#8230;&#8230;<span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The first Italy GDP estimate will show  economic stagnation in 3Q11 (the risk of a sizeable contraction is  postponed to year-end 2011\/start-2012).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The coming week is packed with data in  the United States. November home sales and new starts should be little  changed, though improving slightly; durable goods orders should pick up,  and personal spending and income should show modest gains. The final  estimate of 3Q11 GDP should remain at +2% qoq ann.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 20 December <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. We expect the IFO to fall again  in December (estimated 106.4) after the unexpected bounce to 106.6 in  November. The index would still be above the long-term mean (100.6). The  present situation index is estimated at 115.5 vs. 116.7 before  (long-term mean: 123.3). Expectations three-six months fwd might be  little changed (97.5 from 97.3). The IFO remains consistent with  expansion of the German economy, although this too should slow between  4Q11 and 1Q12 from the 0.5% qoq posted in 3Q11.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">New starts are expected to rise slightly  to 635k in November from 628k in October. The data from the  construction sector has shown tentative improvements in recent months;  November should show a rebound in the single-family segment, vs. a  correction in multi-family homes. Permits should correct to 635k from  644k in October, falling back into line with starts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 21 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Publication of the first reading  of 3Q11 GDP. The lag vs. the other European countries is due to the fact  that the figure will for the first time contain, as per EU rules, the  estimates obtained from the new economic activity classification (Nace  Rev.2); Istat will revise the historical series as of 2000, which will  also incorporate changes due to improvements in the sources and methods  used. We expect economic activity to be stagnant in the quarter, since,  based on the production data, industry should have made a zero (or  slightly negative) contribution to value added, and this is unlikely to  be offset by services. In any case, the risk of a sharp contraction in  GDP is merely postponed to 4Q11 and 1Q12.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Belgium economic confidence is  expected to fall to -13 from -12.2. The breakdown of the manufacturing  survey will be of interest, notably the trend in export orders, seen as a  leading indicator of trends in German industry and thus the Euro area  as a whole. The contagion of the financial crisis to countries like  Belgium (spread over 230bps) might cause a slowdown in lending flows to  businesses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence is expected to fall  to -21.7 in December from -21.4 before, dented by the ongoing flow of  bad news on the macro outlook. The persistence of the crisis and related  uncertainty might prompt households to defer spending plans, notably  for durables.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Existing home sales are expected to rise  to 5.1M units ann. in November from 4.97M in October. Pending home  sales rose sharply in October (+10.4% mom), making good the summer  corrections. Mortgage demand for home purchases also improved in the  first half of November, confirming a recovery after the negative trend  seen from April to July.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 22 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro Area <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy\u2019s Senate is expected to pass by a  large majority the confidence motion enacting the latest fiscal  correction package. The lower Chamber voted on December 16th.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The third estimate of 3Q11 GDP should be  unchanged at 2% qoq ann., with a possible small upward revision in  consumption to 2.4% qoq ann., offset by slightly more subdued growth in  business fixed investments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Household confidence as measured by the  Univ. of Michigan in December (final) is estimated at 68, in line with  the preliminary indications. The equity market has corrected in recent  weeks, but the indications from the job market and the price of petrol  should buoy the recent improvement in household sentiment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 23 December <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. The second reading of 3Q11 GDP  should confirm the preliminary estimate of 0.4% qoq and 1.6% yoy. The  quarter recorded acceptable levels of growth (0.3% qoq) in both  household consumption and business investments. However, France too  risks economic stagnation in 4Q11\/1Q12.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. We expect consumer confidence to  fall back to 93.5 in December after the unexpected bounce to 96.5 in  November. Household sentiment is not far off the all-time low recorded  in July 2008 (92.8), likely dogged by expectations over the impact of  the austerity package on disposable income, as well as inflation, plus a  possible deterioration in employment prospects. We expect consumption  to contract by close to 1% in 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Durable goods orders are expected to be  up 1.8% mom in November after two straight falls (-0.5% mom in October).  Transportation should show a robust bounce after two negative months.  Ex transportation, orders should slow to +0.4% mom, after the strong  October figure (+1.1% mom, revised from +0.7% mom). The orders component  of the ISM was positive in November (rising to 56.7 from 52.4), after  several months of quasi-stagnation around 50. The orders trend is  positive but there is no sign for now of a fresh acceleration.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Personal spending should be up 0.3% mom  in November, vs. +0.1% mom in October. Consumption should show a  positive dynamic in goods (auto, and also non-durables) to the detriment  of services, which should again be little changed. Personal income is  expected to be up +0.2% mom in November. Wages should be unchanged in  light of the weak figures on hours worked and pay in the employment  report. The saving rate should fall to 3.4%.<\/p>\n<p>New home sales should rise to 315k in November vs. 307k in October.  The NAHB confidence survey for November showed a marked improvement  after months of stagnation, with positive indications for current and  future sales. The sales trend remains virtually flat but the signs point  to a small improvement.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Due out in the Euro area are the remaining December confidence surveys. 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