{"id":874,"date":"2012-01-23T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-01-23T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/01\/23\/makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-januar-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-01-23T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-01-23T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-januar-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-januar-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 23- 27 Januar 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will be on the outcome of the Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings at the beginning of the week. The<span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">calendar of macro releases includes the January round of surveys (German IFO, French INSEE, euro area PMI), that should show a stabilisation of confidence levels. In the United States market focus next week will be on the FOMC meeting and Bernanke\u2019s press conference. The Fed is expected to announce a revolution in its communication strategy, publishing long-term numerical targets and disclosing the monetary policy path deemed appropriate by all FOMC participants. December data should confirm the growth trend, with durable goods and new homes sales on the rise. GDP growth in Q4 2011 is expected to be upby 2.8% q\/q annualised. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Monday 23 January<\/p>\n<p>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The Eurogroup will meet to prepare the forthcoming European Council on 30 January. The final version of the \u201cfiscal compact\u201d draft, prepared over the past few weeks, should be approved (with few changes, in our view). The issue of the leverage of the EFSF will also be tackled, and the implications of S&#038;P\u2019s recent downgrade discussed, in addition to laying out a roadmap for the strengthening of the fund\u2019s resources, which should take place by the end of March, ahead of the launch of the new ESM (in June). Another topic of discussion will be the issue of the second bailout package to Greece (conditioned to an agreement being reached on Private Sector Involvement).<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; France. Business confidence, as measured by the INSEE index, may stabilise at 94 in January, below the long-term average (100). This would be the first time the index avoided a monthly drop since last June; we expect the downtrend to at least be interrupted by signals of a stabilisation of the financial crisis. It should also be noted that the corresponding survey carried out by the Bank of France pointed to a marginal improvement in December (as opposed to a two-point drop of the INSEE idnex).  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 24 January<\/p>\n<p>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The initial January PMI readings should confirm the rebound recorded in the previous two months. However, the main indices should in any case stay in recessive territory. We estimate a two-tenth rise in the composite PMI to 48.5, on the back of an improvement in the services sector in particular (to 49.3 from 48.8), as opposed to a broadly stable manufacturing index (47 vs. 46.9). If the financial crisis shows signs of stabilising, the cycle low could be reached in Q1 2012.  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 25 January<\/p>\n<p>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Germany. The IFO index should rebound for the third consecutive month in January, to 108.7 from 107.2 in December, according to our estimates. The improvement would mostly be tied to expectations component (up to 101.1 from 98.4), while assessments of the present situation should remain broadly stable (in line with the previous three months) at 116.8. We believe Germany should be able to avoid a recession, thanks to a still expansive monetary and<br \/>fiscal conditions in the euro area\u2019s leading economy. <\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; President Obama will hold the \u201cState of the Union Address\u201d, laying out the guidelines for his re-election campaign leading up to the autumn presidential vote.<br \/>&#8211; The FOMC meeting will be followed by Mr. Bernanke\u2019s quarterly press conference. The meeting should bring the announcement of deep changes in the communication strategy. In addition to the usual macroeconomic projections, the Fed is also expected to publish explicit numeric targets to define its mandate in the medium term. Also, the monetary policy deemed appropriate by the 14 present participants in the FOMC meeting should be disclosed, with indications on the likely timing of the first interest rate hike, and projections for the fed fund rate between the end of 2012 and 2014. The message should be expansive, and rates probably be indicated as stable until well into 2014. The new communication strategy lays the groundwork for QE3: the macro projections and explicit targets should outline a relatively high probability of the Fed\u2019s readiness to intervene with further monetary stimulus in the not-toodistant future. <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Thursday 26 January<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Italy. January consumer confidence should come in close to its recent lows. Our forecast is for an index of 92, from 91.6, which marked an all-time low in the 15-year long data series. Confidence was impacted by the effects of the financial crisis (and of the austerity measures) on household savings opportunities, as well as by the perception of persistently high inflation, both in the past 12 months and next year. Household confidence is already compatible with a<br \/>contraction in consumption in 2012.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; December durable goods orders should prove to have risen at a sharp pace, of +3% m\/m, driven by a surge in the volatile civil aviation segment. Net of transport items, orders are expected to be up by 1% m\/m. The orders component of all manufacturing sector surveys point to an acceleration; the production trend in the manufacturing sector was also strong in December.<br \/>&#8211; Sales of existing homes in December are forecast on the rise to 325k from 315k in November. All real estate sector indicators are improving, including those tied to construction. The construction sector confidence survey has brightened considerably, yielding positive indications on views on the present and future sales trend. What\u2019s more, December enjoyed particularly favourable weather conditions.  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Friday 27 January<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The M3 monetary aggregate is expected to be up by 2.2% y\/y in December, after dropping unexpectedly by 2% in November. Last month\u2019s decline was due a statistical effect tied to the substantial interbank transactions with central counterparts in November 2010, net of which the monetary aggregate would have increased slightly. The 3M moving average would drop to 2.3% y\/y as a result, from 2.5% y\/y in November.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; GDP growth in Q4 2011 is expected to be up by 2.8% q\/q annualised. Consumption is expected to show a 2.2% q\/q annualised increase, the best result in 2011. Fixed investments by enterprises should slow to 7% q\/q annualised, after a brilliant Q3 (+15.7% q\/q ann.). The foreign channel is expected to make a marginally negative contribution. Public sector spending should be a drag on growth, owing to the end of the Iraq troop deployment. Inventories should instead contribute positively to growth.<\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will be on the outcome of the Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings at the beginning of the week. 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