{"id":878,"date":"2012-01-27T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-01-27T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/01\/27\/makrooekonomische-daten-30-januar-03-februar-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-01-27T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-01-27T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-30-januar-03-februar-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-30-januar-03-februar-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 30 Januar &#8211; 03 Februar 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will again be on the EU Summit, but the week   will bring a host of data releases. In Spain, the preliminary GDP   estimate will point to a 0.4% contraction at the end of 2011&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  European Commission\u2019s economic confidence survey should indicate a  slight recovery in confidence in January, albeit still on levels  compatible with a slight GDP growth recession in the euro area.  Unemployment is expected to remain stable at 8.3% in the euro area, and  6.8% in Germany, as opposed to a rise in Italy (to 8.7%). Inflation  should be down by one-tenth to 2.7% y\/y in the euro area, to 2.2% y\/y in  Germany, and 3.6% y\/y in Italy.<\/p>\n<p>The week\u2019s calendar of events is  a busy one in the United States. January data should confirm a moderate  expansion of the economy. The Employment Report is expected to show a  weaker increase in jobs compared to December, with the unemployment rate  unchanged at 8.5%. manufacturing sector surveys (ISM, Chicago) should  be compatible with an expansion of the sector, with no further  acceleration. Household confidence should continue to recover, and auto  sales are expected to be in line with December figures. Personal  spending is forecast to be up only slightly in December, as opposed to a  stronger increase in income.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Monday 30 January<\/p>\n<p>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>Spain.  The preliminary Q4 GDP estimate will indicate that the country has  fallen back into recession. In line with the estimates published by the  Bank of Spain, we expect a 0.3% q\/q drop, after the stall over the  summer months. In annual terms, growth will slow to 0.2% y\/y from 0.8%  y\/y previously. We expect fiscal consolidation (2.6% of GDP), the  slowdown of the global&nbsp; picture, and the process of rebalancing the  further correction of the real estate sector, will leave the GDP trend  in 2012 in markedly negative territory (-1.7%).<br \/>The European  Commission\u2019s economic confidence survey should climb back to 94.1 in  January, from a previous reading of 93.3, a level still consistent with a  slight contraction in euro area GDP at the beginning of the year. The  rebound could prove temporary, and we expect it to be mostly driven by  the services sector (-1.5 from -2.1) and consumers (the preliminary  estimate showed a 1.3 point recovery to -20.6). The picture within the  euro area remains markedly mixed, with France, Germany and the Nordic  countries incurring only a modest contraction of GDP, while in  peripheral countries we expect a more severe recession, with Portugal  the most affected (-3.7), followed by Spain (-1.4) and Italy (-1.0).<\/p>\n<p>Italy.  Business confidence is forecast as stable at 92.5 in January. This  could be simply a hiatus on historically low levels. Italian industry  keeps posting more disappointing performances compared to France and  Germany, penalised by the debt crisis, weakening domestic demand, higher  interest rates, and uncertain future prospects.<\/p>\n<p>Germany. In  December, retail sales should have recovered only partially (+0.3% m\/m)  from the drop recorded in November (-1.0% m\/m). Consumer confidence in  Germany plummeted at the end of 2011 (to levels around 10 points lower  than the average in the first nine months of 2011). In the quarter,  retail sales are estimated to have grown by 0.5% q\/q, slowing from +0.8%  q\/q in September.<\/p>\n<p>Germany. Data from the Laender should be  compatible with a 0.5% m\/m drop in consumer prices (0.6% m\/m in terms of  the harmonised rate), thanks to a favourable seasonal effect and to a  zero contribution from the energy sector. Inflation is expected to slow  by two-tenths in terms of the national rate, to 1,9% y\/y, and by  one-tenth at the harmonised level, to 2.2% y\/y.<\/p><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>Personal  spending is forecast to have made very little progress in December,  +0.2% m\/m, based on weak retail sales data. Personal income is estimated  to be up by 0.4% m\/m: the information contained in the employment  report pointed to a sustained uptrend of work hours and wages. The core  consumption deflator should show a 0.1% m\/m increase (1.8% y\/y). The  savings rate is forecast to rise back to 3.7% from 3.5% in December.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 31 January<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>The  unemployment rate is expected to have stayed at 10.3% in December. The  cyclical slowdown will weigh on the labour market trend, and push the  unemployment rate up to 11% in the autumn.<\/p>\n<p>Germany. The  unemployment rate is forecast to stay stable at 6.8% in January, and the  number of unemployed people should be down by 10k. The labour market is  expected to keep benefiting from a resilient economic cycle in the  summer and autumn of 2011, and the year-end slowdown should translate  into unemployment at the usual time lag (mid-2012).<\/p>\n<p>France.  December retail sales are expected to show a 0.6% m\/m rebound (from a  0.1% m\/m decline in November). However, the monthly rise will not be  enough to change the year-onyear trend, which will remain in negative  territory (-1.6% y\/y). The trend of employment, and uncertainty tied to  the debt crisis in the euro area, are conditioning consumer choices,  with inevitable repercussions on consumption.<\/p>\n<p>Italy. Unemployment  could be up by one-tenth, to 8.7% in December. In the months ahead, the  unemployment rate may rise to over 9% in our view, penalised by the  economic cycle.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>The January Chicago PMI  is expected to be up to 63.2 from 62.8 in December. The Chicago index  has consistently stayed above the ISM since the beginning of 2010, also  thanks to the recovery in the auto sector, which should continue in 2012  and support the Chicago area in particular. Production localisation in  the United States by Japanese manufacturers is a factor of major  importance, together with the ongoing pickup in car sales in the US.<\/p>\n<p>The  Conference Board consumer confidence index should rise in January to 69  from 64.5, scoring a third consecutive increase. The expectations  component should improve from to 83 from 76,4, hitting a high since  April 2011. Current conditions are expected to improve at a slower rate,  to 48 from 46.7.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 1 February<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>ADP non-farm payrolls are estimated by consensus to be up by 185k in January, from 325k in December.<\/p>\n<p>The  January manufacturing sector ISM is expected to rise to 54 from 53.9 in  December. Regional surveys in January were mixed, with the Empire on  the rise, but the Philly Fed\u2019s end- 2011 levels revised downwards. On  the whole, however, the manufacturing sector continues to grow at a  sound pace, and the ISM\u2019s indications should remain positive, with  orders still increasing and sustained production.<\/p>\n<p>New car sales  in January are estimated to have increased to 13.6 million ann. from  13.48 million in December. Sales to consumers may slow slightly in  January, but the total should be supported by recovering sales to  companies. The auto sector will continue to make a positive contribution  to overall growth and consumption in 2012.<br \/>Construction spending is  forecast to have increased in December by 0.3% m\/m. Weather conditions  were favourable, but construction sites dropped significantly and  unexpectedly in the month.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 2 February<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>Productivity  growth in Q4 2011 is estimated to have slowed to 1% q\/q from 2.3% the  previous quarter. Unit labour cost should be back on the rise, by 1%,  after declining by the same rate in Q3 2011.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 3 February<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area.<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  preliminary estimate should point to a drop in euro area inflation, to  2.7% y\/y from 2.8% y\/y the previous month, thanks to seasonal factors  and to a favourable base effect. Also, on average in the euro area,  pressures generated by the energy component are expected to have eased  in December. Risks of oil price increases during the year are by no  means negligible, given the uncertain geopolitical picture. However,  beyond upside tensions tied to energy costs, taxes, and administered  prices, we do not see risks weighing on the consumer price trend.<\/p>\n<p>Italy.  In January, consumer prices are estimated to have risen by 0.3% m\/m at  the national level, resulting in an inflation rate of 3.2% y\/y, from  3.3% y\/y previously. The monthly trend is again expected to have been  impacted by higher fuel prices. At the harmonised level, prices are  forecast to be down by 1.6% m\/m due to seasonal factors, which the  national index does not take into account. The harmonised inflation rate  is expected to be down to 3.6% y\/y, from 3.7% y\/y.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>Non-farm  payrolls in January are expected to be up by 145k, after a 200k  increase in December. New jobs in the private sector are estimated at  165k (from 212k). Labour market indicators are compatible with a  continuation of a moderate employment uptrend. In January, private  sector employment growth in retail and transport should be more modest.  The unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 8.5%, as in December.  Hourly wages are forecast in line with the trend, at +0.2% m\/m. On the  whole, data should confirm the Fed\u2019s assessment that the labour market  is still recovering at a very slow pace, supporting expectations for the  introduction of new monetary stimulus in the not-too-distant future. <\/p>\n<p>The  January non-manufacturing ISM is estimated to rise to 53 from 52.6 in  December. The December survey was positive, with no indications of an  acceleration in activity. Services are still growing at a more modest  pace than the manufacturing sector. This reflects not only exchange rate  effects, but also stronger demand from households for goods rather than  services.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will again be on the EU Summit, but the week will bring a host of data releases. In Spain, the preliminary GDP estimate will point to a 0.4% contraction at the end of 2011&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/878\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}