{"id":884,"date":"2012-02-03T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-02-03T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/02\/03\/makrooekonomische-daten-06-10-februar-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-02-03T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-02-03T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-06-10-februar-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-06-10-februar-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 06 &#8211; 10 Februar 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area focus will be on the developments of the crisis, and in   particular on the outcome of PSI negotiations in Greece, and on the  ECB  meeting&#8230;..<span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The week will be rather scanty in  terms of data releases: the only indicators due out will concern  industrial output in the three major countries (and orders in Germany).  Beyond monthly volatility, data should show that 2011 came to a  particularly weak end in the industrial sector. It is too early as yet  for the incipient recovery of some confidence surveys to translate into a  change in the trend of real industrial activity data.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Only a few data releases are  scheduled this week in the United States. The trade balance should show a  modest easing of the deficit in December, compatible with a marginally  positive contribution to Q411 growth. February consumer confidence  should be down marginally compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Monday 6 February<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>Germany.  Factory orders may show a rebound (+0.9% m\/m) in December, after  plunging by &#8211; 4.8% m\/m the previous month. The year-on-year trend would  in any case stay negative (- 0.9%). For several months now, surveys have  been pointing to a slowdown in orders for Germany as well, and of  foreign orders in particular, albeit to a lesser degree than in the rest  of the euro area.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 7 February<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>An  informal Eurogroup meeting may be called this week to give the go-ahead  to the Second AP for Greece. The meeting was originally scheduled for  Monday, but it has been delayed ue the problems with the negotiations on  the EAP. The pre-requisite for the meeting is an greement between  Greece and the international creditors on the conditionality, which in  urn requires a strong commitment by the three parties supporting the  Papademos overnment. A second issue is the involvement of official  holders of public debt, such the CB, to offset the shortfall of about  15Bn vs. the earlier estimates of the funding requirement.<\/p>\n<p>Germany.  Industrial production is expected to have dropped by -0.3% m\/m in  December, fter a -0.6% m\/m decline in November. However, the  year-on-year rate should show a ebound (from 3.6% to 4.3%), although in  Germany as well the industrial sector is expected o make a negative  contribution to GDP in the closing quarter of 2011, due to a quarterly  rop in output of around 1.5%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 9 February<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>ECB meeting.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 10 February<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>France.  Industrial output is expected down by at least -0.5% m\/m in December  after the nexpected +1.1% m\/m surge the previous month. Annual growth  would drop to zero from .9% in November; this would be a low since the  end of 2009. Confidence surveys keep ointing to a slowdown in orders and  output, which will reap effects in the coming months. taly. Industrial  production is expected to have contracted by -0.6% m\/m in December,  after coring a surprise +0.3% recovery the previous month. As a result  the year-on-year rate would lunge even deeper into negative territory at  -10.8% in unadjusted terms, and -5.1% djusted by workdays. This would  mark a low since the end of 2009. The reading would be onsistent with an  industrial output contraction of close to 3% q\/q in the closing quarter  of 011, which would signal a sharp drop in GDP as well over the same  period.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">United States  In December the  trade balance should show a deficit of USD 47.5Bn, after widening  sharply to SD 47.8Bn (+2.8Bn) in November. In December exports should  have accelerated, growing at  faster pace than imports. Import prices  dropped by -0.4% m\/m in December (petroleum &#8211; .4% m\/m), as opposed to a  -0.5% m\/m decline in export prices. Data should result in a maller  quarterly deficit than assumed by the advance GDP estimate, prompting a  slight pward revision of growth estimates.<\/p>\n<p>Consumer confidence as  surveyed by the University of Michigan in February (preliminary) hould  correctly modestly, to 74 from 75 in January (final estimate). The  survey should show a light deterioration in current conditions, with the  index down from 84.2 in January. Inflation xpectations remain  well-anchored (in January 3.3% on a 1Y horizon, 2.7% on a 5Y horizon)<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area focus will be on the developments of the crisis, and in particular on the outcome of PSI negotiations in Greece, and on the ECB meeting&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=884"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/884\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}