{"id":892,"date":"2012-02-10T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-02-10T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/02\/10\/makrooekonomische-daten-13-17-februar-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-02-10T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-02-10T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-13-17-februar-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-13-17-februar-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 13 &#8211; 17 Februar 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the  euro area, the focus will be on Wednesday\u2019s Eurogroup. Q4   national economic data releases will show a slowdown in GDP  growth&#8230;<strong><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span>&#8230;<span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">in all the main economies, including  Germany (Italy is expected to post the worst performance); the negative  phase is estimated to have continued into early 2012. Industrial output  in the euro area should be down significantly in December. The February  ZEW index should indicate easing pessimism in terms of the economic  outlook for Germany, for the third month in a row, although confidence  is expected to have improved less than in January. <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The week\u2019s calendar of events is  busy with data releases in the United States. The figures due out should  prove generally positive. February manufacturing indices should be up.  As regards January, retail sales and industrial output are expected to  have scored significant increases. In terms of prices, import prices,  CPI and PPI, are also estimated to have grown, driven by energy prices.  The January FOMC meeting minutes should indicate openness towards the  implementation of further monetary stimulus.<\/div>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 14 February <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Industrial output in the euro area  could be down by -1.1% m\/m in December, from +0.1% m\/m (revised upwards  from a preliminary rate  of -0.1%) the previous month. The quarter  should come to a close with output on the decline by -0.7% q\/q (first  drop in two-and-a-half years). In the month, output  was negatively  affected by a sharp contraction in Germany. It is as yet too early for  the incipient stabilisation of some confidence indices to translate into  a recovery of industrial production. <\/p>\n<p>&#8211;  Germany. The  ZEW  index, which measures the expectations of analysts and institutional  investors for the German economy, may show an easing of pessimism for  the third month in a row. However, the improvement will be smaller than  in January (when the index recorded the sharpest monthly rise in the  history of the series). We estimate the index to come in at -18, from  -21.6 the previous month. On the other hand, the improvement in terms of  the assessment of current conditions should be weaker, at 30.5 in our  estimation, from 28.4 the previous month. <br \/>The drop in sovereign debt risk indices, and the strong trend of the stock markets, have probably supported confidence.<\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>United States <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Import prices are estimated to have  risen by 0.5% m\/m in January. Prices should receive a strong boost from  oil. Net of oil, the increase should be of around +0.2% m\/m.  <\/p>\n<p>&#8211;   January  retail sales  should be up sharply, by +0.8% m\/m, fuelled by  automobiles, gasoline prices, and a widespread recovery following  a  weak December reading. Net of the auto sector, retails sales should be  on the rise by 0.6% m\/m. Data point to a likely acceleration of  consumption in Q1 2012.<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>Wednesday 15 February <br \/>Euro area <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  The extraordinary Eurogroup  meeting  is set to discuss about the second bailout package to Greece.  The conditions for the approval are: 1) the Greek parliament must have  approved the package agreed with the Troika; 2)  additional structural  corrections worth EUR 325M must have been at least \u201cidentified\u201d; 3)  political party leaders must have offered \u201cstrong political assurance\u201d  guaranteeing implementation of the package. <\/p>\n<p>&#8211;  Preliminary Q4  GDP growth data are due out in Germany, France, Italy, and in the euro  area on the whole. The estimate for the  euro area should be for a -0.3%  q\/q decline, after a +0.1% rise (revised downwards by one \u2013tenth) in  the summer quarter. In the year as a whole, GDP growth would therefore  slow from 1.3% to 0.8%, hitting a low since 2009. All the maineconomies  are expected to incur a contraction in GDP, including Germany (to -0.3%  from +0.5%, also due to a significant slowdown in investments, as well  as of exports). GDP is estimate to be down in France as well, by -0.2%  q\/q from +0.4% q\/q the previous month, pushed down by slower consumption  and contracting investments. Lastly,  Italy is once again expected to  underperform, showing a contraction in GDP of at least -0.6% q\/q, that  would technically mark the official start of a recession (second  consecutive quarter of negative growth, after the -0.2% q\/q drop over  the summer). The opening months of 2012 should also bring a contraction  of GDP, of approximately the same size as at the end of 2011.<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>United States <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  The NY Fed\u2019s  Empire index is estimated to rise to 14.2 in February from 13.4 in January. <br \/>Regional  surveys continue to show a differential compared to levels compatible  with the historical correlation with the ISM: this gap should gradually  close. In January the Empire index was in comfortably positive  territory, in terms of its individual components as well, with orders  and jobs making strong progress. Manufacturing sector indices remain on a  positive path that should be confirmed in the months ahead.   <\/p>\n<p>&#8211;   Industrial output should be up in January by 0.8% m\/m, with production  in the manufacturing sector performing even better (+1.1% m\/m). Data on  employment and work hours contained in the employment report point to  strong growth in the manufacturing sector (especially in terms of  overtime, jobs up by 50k). The manufacturing sector is on a sustained  growth path, which should be confirmed in the months ahead, as also  indicated by the strong trend of durable orders in December. Milder  weather than usual should result in a correction for utilities. <\/p>\n<p>&#8211;   The Fed will publish the minutes of the FOMC meeting of 24-25 January.  As a result of the new communication strategy adopted in January, most  of the important information has already been made available on occasion  of the press conference, and through communiqu\u00e9s and projections.  However, the minutes could contain further details on the Fed\u2019s  availability to intervene with new stimulus despite gradually improving  data on activity and employment. In Bernanke\u2019s testimonies following the  publication of relatively positive data, no change in tone was  perceived compared to the press conference, leaving open the door for  QE3 if, as is currently the case, the Fed continues to forecast  inflation at stubbornly lower levels than the target rate, and an  unemployment rate that is still well off its normal levels.<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>Thursday 16 February <br \/>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  The January PPI should be up by  0.5% m\/m, after a -0.1% m\/m decline in December. The core index is  estimated to be up by 0.2% m\/m. The headline index should show a sharp  rise of the energy component: the higher price of gasoline should more  than balance the expected drop in natural gas prices.  <\/p>\n<p>&#8211;   Housing starts  should rise in number in January to 685k, after dropping  sharply and unexpectedly in December (-4.1% m\/m). The  weather was  generally mild in January, and activity in the construction sector  increased, based on the information on job gains in the construction  sector included in the Employment Report.  Housing licences  are  expected to show an increase, to 675k from 671k (revised downwards from  679k) in December.     <\/p>\n<p>&#8211;  The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast  to rise to 10 from 7.3 in January. Like the Empire index, for some time  now the Philly Fed has also been on lower levels than predictable based  on the correlation with the ISM. The January Philadelphia Fed survey  was not particularly positive, and showed deteriorating deliveries,  orders, and order books, with stable employment. In light of strong data  across the board in the manufacturing sector, we expect the index to  show a clear improvement in February.<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>Friday 17 February <br \/>United States <\/strong><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  In January the CPI should be up by  0.3% m\/m, driven by higher gasoline prices. The core index is forecast  to rise by .2% m\/m, keeping the year-on-year rate at 2.2%, in line with  December. The headline index should be boosted by the ncrease in  gasoline prices, after three consecutive monthly declines in Q4 2011.  The core index should be up again by between 0.1% and 0.2% m\/m: the  main  contribution should come from the housing component, fuelled by  the ccelerating trend of rents.<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the focus will be on Wednesday\u2019s Eurogroup. Q4 national economic data releases will show a slowdown in GDP growth&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=892"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/892\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}