{"id":895,"date":"2012-02-13T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-02-13T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/02\/13\/forex-markets-sterling-tracked-the-euro-and-also-rose-against-the-dollar-from-gbpusd-157-to-159\/"},"modified":"2012-02-13T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-02-13T09:00:00","slug":"forex-markets-sterling-tracked-the-euro-and-also-rose-against-the-dollar-from-gbpusd-157-to-159","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/forex-markets-sterling-tracked-the-euro-and-also-rose-against-the-dollar-from-gbpusd-157-to-159\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex markets: Sterling tracked the euro and also rose against the dollar, from GBP\/USD 1.57 to 1.59"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">Greek  deadlock still unresolved, but the euro rose and could strengthen  further in the event of a positive outcome. The BoE has expanded the APF  and Wednesday\u2019s Inflation Report will contain the new growth and  inflation projections. <\/span>..<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">The  latter should create the conditions for a correction of the pound on a  1m-3m horizon. The yen proved sensitive to the evolution of market  sentiment: downside reversal already under way\u2026 as long as the Greek  crisis is solved.<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">The  Swedish central bank will meet on Wednesday: underperformance of the  Swedish krona against the Norwegian krone, with or without a rate cut.  The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the markets by leaving rates  unchanged: AUD stronger, but risks persist.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>EUR <\/strong>\u2013  The euro gradually appreciated this week, in step with progress towards  a deal on Greece being struck. The exchange rate rose from EUR\/USD 1.30  to 1.33. It stopped at the latter level, however, when the Eurogroup  decided to postpone a final decision until next Wednesday, following  parliamentary approval by Sunday of the Greek government\u2019s proposal. The  euro dropped somewhat on the postponement, retracing to 1.32. If a  (positive) solution is reached by the end of next week, there could be  room for a further strengthening towards 1.34-1.35. Resistances at  1.3322 \u2013 1.3354 \u2013 1.3386 \u2013 1.3434 \u2013 1.3487 \u2013 1.3521 \u2013 1.3548.  Technically, upside should remain restricted to within the EUR\/USD 1.34  area, but as the Greek deadlock isproving more complex than expected,  any upside reaction of the exchange rate might prove sharper. The ECB  has left rates unchanged and may not cut them any further. This could  appear to be a supportive factor for the euro, but \u2013 barring positive  surprises on the growth front \u2013 will not shield the single currency from  the risk of a pullback to (just) below 1.30. If the Greek crisis  becomes more complex, rather than reaching a solution, the euro would  risk shedding this week\u2019s gains, returning to 1.30 or just under (key  support at 1.3026).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>GBP <\/strong>\u2013  Sterling tracked the euro and also rose against the dollar, from  GBP\/USD 1.57 to 1.59. However, the UK economy provided no grounds on  which to prospect a further strengthening of the pound against the  dollar. In fact, the BoE sent signals pointing to an at least temporary  correction. As expected, the la Bank of England left the bank rate  unchanged at 0.50% and expanded the APF by GBP 50Bn. In its press  release the BoE forecasts that based on its new projections (to be  published in the inflation report next Wednesday, 15 February) growth  should prove weak in the short term, and strengthen gradually in the  course of the year. The strengthening will be guided by (1) monetary  stimulus currently in place, and (2) a slight recovery in real household  incomes, thanks to the expected drop in inflation. However, the risks  to growth are skewed on the downside, due to (1) restrictive credit  conditions, (2) the fiscal consolidation under way, and (3) the problems  afflicting the euro area. Inflation is expected to drop sharply in the  short term, and to continue declining subsequently \u2013 also in light of  still rather high levels of spare capacity. Next week\u2019s inflation report  will shed light on whether there is a margin for a further expansion of  the APF in the months ahead. In our opinion the BoE\u2019s statement has  created the conditions for a short correction phase for the GBP\/USD  exchange rate on a 1m-3m horizon, with a return towards the  GBP\/USD1.55-1.50 range. <br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>JPY <\/strong>\u2013  The yen unexpectedly showed sensitivity to easing risk aversion, in  step with the progress made in Greece towards the achievement of a deal.  It then weakened somewhat, from USD\/JPY 76 to 77. A positive outcome of  the Greek deadlock would allow a further brightening of market  sentiment and \u2013 in that case \u2013 the decline of the yen, for all its  moderate entity, may represent the start of the long-awaited downside  reversal.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>AUD <\/strong>\u2013  Contrary to consensus expectations for a cut, the Reserve Bank of  Australia left rates unchanged at 4.25% on Tuesday. The initial reaction  of the AUD was a strengthening (against the US dollar). The exchange  rate rose from 1.06 to 1.08 AUD\/USD. However, it failed to rise above  that level. A historical high was reached in the AUD\/USD 1.10 area in  July 2011. Therefore, some saturation is observed near those levels. The  RBA made it understood that the decision was prompted by a slight  improvement of the overall scenario, both at the domestic and, most  importantly, global levels. However, it explicitly said that in light of  the favourable inflation scenario, it is ready to cut rates again if  demand conditions show signs of weakness. As a result, we confirm our  expectation for a weakening of the AUD this year, acknowledging however  the existence of upside risks to our scenario (i.e. central projections  for the AUD\/USD exchange rate may be somewhat undervalued).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. 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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Greek deadlock still unresolved, but the euro rose and could strengthen further in the event of a positive outcome. The BoE has expanded the APF and Wednesday\u2019s Inflation Report will contain the new growth and inflation projections. ..&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/895\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}