{"id":910,"date":"2012-02-24T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-02-24T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/02\/24\/forex-markets-after-approval-of-greeces-bailout-the-euro-gained-what-was-expected-of-it-in-technical-terms\/"},"modified":"2012-02-24T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-02-24T15:00:00","slug":"forex-markets-after-approval-of-greeces-bailout-the-euro-gained-what-was-expected-of-it-in-technical-terms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/forex-markets-after-approval-of-greeces-bailout-the-euro-gained-what-was-expected-of-it-in-technical-terms\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex markets: After approval of Greece\u2019s bailout, the euro gained what was expected of it (in technical terms)."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The correction could start immediately, and if it doesn\u2019t it will only be a matter of time<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"> <\/span><\/span>..<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><strong>EUR <\/strong>\u2013 The long-awaited and repeatedly postponed agreement on the bailout of Greece has been reached. <\/span>The euro has benefited, rising from EUR\/USD 1.31 to 1.34. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">This  is where our technical targets are placed. In particular, 1.3436  represents the \u201cnormal\u201d climb-back level after the recovery which began  in mid-January. Up to that threshold, the possibility of a retracement  towards\/below 1.30 remains in place on a 1m horizon or thereabouts. The  upside front, on the other hand, opens at EUR\/USD 1.3638-1.3706. Now  that the exchange rate has effectively completed \u2013 from a purely  technical point of view \u2013 the current upswing, the question is whether  at this point the trend will continue, or give way to a reversal. The  (speculative) market remains well short, which does not aid a  correction, but is not enough to prevent one. As regards Greece, while  the most serious issue has been resolved, there is still much to do, and  nothing is easy or taken for granted.<\/span><\/div>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Other hitches will have to be resolved next week, before Thursday, when the European Council is due to meet. <\/span>Market sentiment may therefore veer towards caution. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  ECB should continue to drive market positivity, but even this won\u2019t be  sufficient, in our view, to generate a new wave of optimism, and  therefore a new appreciation driver capable of propelling the euro above  1.35. The economic-financial picture may stay difficult in the short  term, and this may well prove to be the most difficult phase of the  year. Therefore, we express a slight preference for the view which  points to an impending correction, albeit brief. The correction may even  be preceded by a short range-trading phase. <\/span>The downside front opens beneath 1.3233-1.3165. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">However,  even in the event of an overshooting of the euro, aided by the  prevalent positioning of the market, the correction scenario would  probably not be compromised, but only delayed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><strong>GBP <\/strong>\u2013  Sterling has started to show signs of own weakness. This has become  evident with the release of the BoE minutes, which showed that at the  beginning of the month two Board members, Adam Posen and David Miles,  voted in favour of a larger expansion of the APF than was opted for.  This was enough to sever the positive correlation between the GBP\/USD  and the EUR\/USD, and result in sterling dropping autonomously both  against the dollar and, especially, the euro.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Now  that the Greek crisis has been sidelined to some extent, negative  indications from the UK economy should depress the pound against the  dollar, bringing the GBP\/USD 1.55 mark into easier reach. Data due out  next week will include the important February PMI manufacturing index on  Thursday, expected to show a slight decline. Our expectations are more  pessimistic than consensus. The poorer the data, the stronger the  downside reaction of sterling will be, both against the dollar and the  euro.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><strong>JPY <\/strong>\u2013  The yen has continued to slide, especially against the euro, but has  reached a critical level, both against the dollar (USD\/JPY 80 area) and  the single currency (EUR\/JPY 108 area). It is hard to say whether next  week will bring a hiatus, with a partial retracement, before the drop  resumes, or whether the downswing will continue unperturbed. In any  case, barring disappointing economic data in the US, the USD\/JPY  exchange rate should manage to head for higher levels (at least into the  81 area). In this case, the EUR\/JPY may rise even further, as the  potential strengthening of the EUR\/USD would amplify the rise of the  USD\/JPY. However, as previously stressed, even in the event of a hiatus  in the trend, this would only be a (short) pause.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><strong>SEK <\/strong>\u2013  Since the Riksbank\u2019s latest rate cut (16 February), the Swedish krona  has weakened slightly against the euro, albeit only marginally. The  exchange rate has broadly stabilised above EUR\/SEK 8.80. On Wednesday,  29 February, the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting will be  published. Although the central bank has already disclosed its new  scenario, the minutes may contain useful elements to better assess  whether there is room for a further monetary easing. If so, the Swedish  krona would be penalised and may attempt to test EUR\/SEK 8.9000.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  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The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The correction could start immediately, and if it doesn\u2019t it will only be a matter of time ..&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/910","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=910"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/910\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=910"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=910"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=910"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}