{"id":918,"date":"2012-03-02T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-02T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/03\/02\/makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-maerz-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-03-02T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-03-02T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-maerz-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-maerz-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 5 &#8212; 9 M\u00e4rz 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will stay on the developments of the debt   crisis, in Greece especially, and on the ECB meeting. Economic data   releases will confirm the (recessionary) values of end-201  GDP growth   and the February PMI survey&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The first set of hard data on the  industrial sector in 2012 should show a rebound in Germany and France,  as opposed to a sharp drop in Italy. Retail sales are expected to rise  back in January after sliding in December (although the trend remains  very depressed).<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The calendar economic data releases has  few but important data this week in the United States. Non-farm payrolls  should record a rise in line with the average for the past three  months, and the unemployment rate should stay stable at 8.3%, confirming  the slow recovery of the labour market. The non-manufacturing ISM index  is forecast around stable in February. The second estimates of  productivity and cost of labour at year-end 2011 should be broadly  unchanged.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 5 March<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second reading of the February PMI  should confirm the flash estimate, with the services index down to 49.4  from 50.4; considering that the manufacturing index improved from 49 to  48.8, the composite index should be confirmed at 49.7, on the decline  from 50.4 the previous month. The PMI index is consistent with GDP  growth heading around zero; confidence indices point to a stabilisation,  but not yet a recovery, in productive activity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail sales are expected to rebound by  0.5% m\/m in January, after sliding by -0.3% m\/m in December. The index  should be driven primarily by France, where sales net of autos increased  by 2.1% m\/m. In any case, year-on-year growth will remain negative,  and, based on the trend of consumer confidence, a recovery is unlikely  in the short term.<\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The non-manufacturing ISM is forecast at  56.5 in February, from 56.8 in January. The January survey was very  strong, and showed activity to be at its highest levels since February  2011 (to 59.5 from 55.9 in December). Orders and employment had also  risen sharply. The Beige Book points to stability in the non-financial  services sector, which indicates a likely stabilisation of the overall  ISM non-manufacturing index on January\u2019s high levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 6 March<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second reading of Q4 GDP data should  confirm the -0.3% q\/q flash estimate, marking the first negative change  in two-and-a-half years. All the main components are expected to have  contracted in the quarter, starting with investments (-0.6%), and on to  both private and public consumption (both down by one-tenth, based on  our estimates). GDP in the region is expected to drop in the present  quarter as well, although the contraction may prove smaller than the one  seen at the end of 2011.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 7 March<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Factory orders may slow to 0.9%  m\/m in January, vs. +1.7% m\/m in December. The year-on-year change  would in any case turn negative, to -1.3% from +0.1% y\/y the previous  month. The recent resilience displayed by the IFO index, also with  regards to enterprises\u2019 assessment of the orders trend, indicates that  the slowdown of industrial activity in Germany is modest, mostly thanks  to non-EU exports.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consensus estimates place ADP private  sector non-farm payrolls in February at 200k, up slightly vs. January  (170k). The January estimate proved lower than the actual employment  report figure (+257k).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Productivity growth in Q4 should be  revised upwards, to +0.9% q\/q from an initial estimate of 0.7% q\/q, in  light of the revision of GDP growth. The cost of labour per product unit  should come in just shy of +1.1% q\/q, from 1.2% q\/q.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 8 March<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the second 36-month repo, we  believe the ECB will take some time to assess the effects of the massive  injection of funds on market conditions. The ECB will not make any  announcements this week, but will keep all options open, signalling its  willingness to intervene again in case of renewed pressures. A refi rate  cut to below 1.0% is unlikely, given the signals of a stabilisation and  the strong improvement in the balance of risks prompted by the 3-year  repos. A zero rate on deposit might be a way to enhance liquidity but  signals in this direction are unlikely to come already at this week  meeting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Industrial production is  expected to rebound in January (by 0.7% m\/m in our estimation) after the  anomalous December decline (-2.9% m\/m). The year-on-year ch\u2019ange should  in any case slow (to 0.8%). In Germany as well, the trend of industrial  activity is still slowing, although less so than in the rest of the  euro area.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 9 March<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Industrial production is  expected to rebound by at least 0.5% m\/m in January, after plunging in  December (-1.4% m\/m). The year-on-year change should in any case be  limited to -1.1%, vs. -1.3% the previous month. Confidence surveys  continue to point to a slowdown in orders and production, which will  reap effects in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Industrial production is forecast  to have contracted by at least -1.8% m\/m in January, after its surprise  rebound (very probably due to seasonal adjustment anomalies) in  December. The year-on-year change would in any case stay in negative  territory, at -0.5% unadjusted and -3.5% adjusted by workdays. As a  further contraction is expected in February, due to disruptions caused  by truck driver strikes and bad weather conditions, the quarterly trend  is on course for a further decline, after the -2.1% q\/q rate recorded in  the closing quarter of 2011.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Employment Report should show an  increase in non-farm payrolls of 210k. Jobs added in the private sector  are forecast at 225k. The breakdown by sector should show a change in  services approximately in line with January (+170k), as opposed to a  smaller increase in manufacturing, and in the construction sector  especially. In January, new industry jobs were 81k, also supported by  particularly mild weather conditions; in February, industry employment  should increase by close to 30-40k. The unemployment rate should be  unchanged at 8.3%, and the participation rate may rise back up from the  new low reached in January (63.7%). Hourly wages are expected to be up  by 0.2% m\/m, confirming a slower trend than inflation on a year-on-year  basis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In January the trade balance is  estimated to show a deficit of 49 billion dollars, broadly in line with  the December figure (-48.8 billion), marking the third consecutive  widening of the deficit. Imports mostly reflect the rise in oil prices,  while exports are slowing as a result of weakening global demand. The  foreign channel\u2019s contribution to growth should be of around zero also  in Q1 2012, in line with the end of 2011.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will stay on the developments of the debt crisis, in Greece especially, and on the ECB meeting. Economic data releases will confirm the (recessionary) values of end-201 GDP growth and the February PMI survey&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=918"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/918\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}