{"id":922,"date":"2012-03-05T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-05T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/03\/05\/viewpoint-global-trade-seems-to-be-reaccelerating\/"},"modified":"2012-03-05T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-03-05T07:00:00","slug":"viewpoint-global-trade-seems-to-be-reaccelerating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/viewpoint-global-trade-seems-to-be-reaccelerating\/","title":{"rendered":"Viewpoint: . Global trade seems to be reaccelerating"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/span><\/span>In the opening months of 2012, economic confidence surveys….. <\/strong>
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For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/p>\n

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improved around the world, only partly as a result of easing risk premiums in the euro area. Global trade seems to be reaccelerating, with possible positive effects also for Europe. However, rising oil prices and a still fragile situation in Europe are important risk factors in the short term. <\/p>\n
– The recession is still in full swing in several European countries, and will probably last throughout the first half of 2012. However, for a number of weeks now, confidence surveys carried out with businesses are showing signs of a recovery, in part involving also Europe, which raise hopes that the current weak phase of the economy may be soon overcome. The global manufacturing PMI hit a low in November 2011, and has since risen back to over 51; the foreign orders index, which had bottomed out a month prior, has been showing a moderate rise for four months, indicating that a reacceleration of global trade is under way, which could soon be reflected also by real data. Against this background, the US economy seems to be playing an important stabilising role, having closed 2011 with imports up by around one per cent vs. Q3 2011, and a relatively upbeat demand for capital goods and durable consumer goods. In the euro area, the European Commission\u2019s economic confidence index continues to point to a pace of growth well below potential, but rose for the second consecutive month in February, to 94,4 from 93.4 in January; the manufacturing PMI, which is still below the 50-point threshold, also rose for the third consecutive month, after hitting a low in November.<\/div>\n
– The improvement in economic trends has also been supported by a sharp drop in risk premiums in the euro area. Together with the massive liquidity injections carried out by the ECB, recent developments on the financial markets will aid an easing of financial conditions in the euro area. In the United States, the improvement of labour market conditions supports stronger consumption in the months ahead.<\/div>\n
– On the other hand, downside risks are also on the map. First of all, oil quotations rose from around 110 dollars in January to 125 dollars in the first half of March, a global supply shock that could dampen economic growth at the international level in the second quarter of the year. Secondly, in 2011 demand for capital goods in the United States was boosted by fiscal incentives, and 2012 got off to a much slower start. Thirdly, the euro area still hasn\u2019t overcome the debt crisis: the situation remains fragile and could still be compromised by \u201chitches\u201d in the management of the bailout programmes and fiscal consolidation processes, that will have to confirm expectations for an improvement in fundamentals. Rather than confirming at all costs the old deficit reduction targets, it will be more important to announce credible objectives, based on reasonable economic trend projections, and on the effects on GDP of the austerity measures put in place.<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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Appendix
<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Analyst Certification<\/strong>
The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n

Important Disclosures<\/strong>
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.
No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
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Valuation Methodology<\/strong>
Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong>
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n

Source: BONDWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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