{"id":933,"date":"2012-03-09T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-09T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/03\/09\/makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-maerz-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-03-09T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-03-09T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-maerz-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-maerz-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten : 12 &#8211; 16 M\u00e4rz 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the ZEW index should confirm recovering confidence, thanks to more relaxed market conditions. Broken down data on Italian GDP at the end of 2011 will highlight a drop in domestic demand and exports, as a result of the 0.7% q\/q contraction of the economy. Inflation in France is expected to rise to 2.7% y\/y on a national basis, and to 2.9% y\/y in harmonised terms European inflation should be confirmed at 2.7%. Industrial production is expected to remain weak in January&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The calendar of events is a busy one in the United States this week. The FOMC meeting should leave open the option of a new stimulus package, underlining the fragility of the recovery and the risks to growth. February data should prove positive, with both retail sales and output on the rise. February inflation will be pushed up by commodity prices, but will incorporate only a part of recent oil price increase: the trend will continue in March. Initial manufacturing sector surveys referred to March should point to continued expansion.   <\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Monday 12 March <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Italy. The  second reading of Q4 GDP  should confirm the preliminary growth rates of -0.7% q\/q (with risks skewed to the downside basso) and -0.5% y\/y. Broken down data should show that all the main components made a negative contribution in the quarter. Investments are expected to show the sharpest drop. GDP contraction should continue at least throughout the first half of 2012. <br \/>&#8211;  Thanks to the high private sector participation in Greece\u2019s debt exchange offer, the Eurogroup will free the 5 Bn tranche of the first Greek adjustment program, and launch the second one by defining its size and conditions.   <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 13 March <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  France. In February, consumer prices should be up by 0.8% m\/m. Prices should be fuelled by the VAT hike between January and February, by the energy prices trend, which is still making a positive contribution to inflation, albeit at a more moderate pace, also thanks to the exchange rate effect and, lastly, by the waning of the seasonal effect that resulted in inflation coming in lower than expected in the first month of the year (the sales season, clothing prices included). Therefore, in January inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.7% from 2.3% at the national level, and to 2.9% from 2.6% the previous month in harmonised terms. Inflation is expected to have peaked in February; forecasts for the remainder of the year point to a moderation in price growth.  <br \/>&#8211;  Spain. The second estimate should confirm Spanish  inflation  at 2.0% y\/y, unchanged compared to January, both at the national and harmonised levels. In the month, consumer prices should be up by 0.1% m\/m, due to pressures from the energy component. Core inflation is estimated to prove stable at 1.2% y\/y. <br \/>&#8211;  Italy. The second estimate should confirm Italian  inflation at 3.3% at the national level at 3.4% harmonised. The inflation trend probably  peaked in February. Core inflation should <br \/>prove stable at 3.0%. <br \/>&#8211;  Germany. In March the ZEW index should confirm the recovery in confidence seen over the past two months, tied to improving labour market conditions. However, this month we expect the expectations component to improve by only 6 points, to +11.4, after leaping (+27 points) by over half the standard deviation in February. The ZEW and IFO indices remain on levels compatible with a recovery in economic activity in Germany in the opening months of this <br \/>year. <br \/><strong><br \/>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  February  retail sales should show sustained growth, up by 1.2% m\/m on the back of auto sales and of the price of oil. In February, auto sales hit a four-year high, on the rise by 6.4% m\/m; although part of the monthly change may be fleet sales, nominal sales to households should be up by around 2% m\/m. The price of  gasoline petrol should rise sharply (+2.5% m\/m). Data net of autos and petrol should point  to a sound growth of close to 0.6% m\/m. Consumption remains on a positive path, on course for a growth of between 2% and 2.5% in 2012.    <br \/>&#8211;  The FOMC meeting should be interlocutory. The post-meeting statement is expected to keep all options open, stressing that, despite stronger-than-expected data, the recovery remains fragile and labour market conditions are far from \u201cnormal\u201d. As regards prices, the recent rises in the energy sector will be highlighted as having transitory effects on headline inflation, and cooling growth, bringing down the purchasing power of households. As regards monetary policy strategy, in addition to indicating that rates will remain stable until well into 2014, the FOMC will make it clear that it is ready to use \u201call available tools\u201d to meet its twofold mandate on full employment and price stability. One of these \u201ctools\u201d could be the adoption of new stimulus without increasing the size of the balance sheet and, therefore, the inflation risks pointed out by some critics, both within and outside the Fed. In the months ahead, the FOMC may consider a new asset purchase programme, sterilising its effects on the monetary base. Purchases would be conducted at the long end of the curve, mostly on MBSs, with the aim of revamping the mortgage market and containing the negative effects of the strong flow of new foreclosures following the agreement signed in February with the banks. The new element would be sterilisation through the issuance of short-term deposit certificates. At the moment, it seems likely that any new stimulus measure would be introduced during a two-day meeting, followed by a press conference. Therefore, next week\u2019s meeting could provide some indication of openness in this direction, but a wait and see attitude will be maintained until April, or more probably June. Even assuming sterilisation, there would be dissent within <br \/>the FOMC for a new stimulus package, but not to the extent of stopping the majority, led by Bernanke. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Japan <\/strong> <br \/>&#8211; The BoJ meeting is not expected to bring important developments, after the expansion of the asset purchase programme announced in February (+10 trillion yen in JGBs), to 60 trillion from 50 trillion yen. However, the central bank may extend the short-term loans included in the package by one year, from the end of March 2012 to the end of March 2013. The press release will reassert the central bank\u2019s intention  to put act aggressively the explicit inflation <br \/>rate target, set at 1%.    <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 14 March <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The second estimate should confirm euro area inflation at 2.7% y\/y in February. In the month, consumer prices should be up by 0.5% m\/m on pressures deriving from energy prices. Core prices are expected to have grown by 0.4% m\/m, placing core inflation at 1.6% y\/y vs. a previous rate of 1.5% y\/y. The energy component will keep inflation above 2% until the summer. On average, in 2012-2013 European  inflation should amount to around 2.2%- 2.3%. <br \/>&#8211;  Industrial output is expected to remain unchanged in January, after dropping by 1.2% m\/m in December. If confirmed, the reading would result in a quarterly change of -0.9% q\/q, as a result of the weak exit from 2011. We do not  rule the possibility of February data showing renewed weakness as a result of exceptionally bad weather conditions throughout Europe. <br \/><strong><br \/>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Import prices  are forecast to rise by 0.5% m\/m, supported by modest commodity price increases. The survey period is the first part of the month, therefore only part of the rise in oil prices should be recorded in February.  <br \/>&#8211;  The NY Fed\u2019s Empire  Index should be down slightly in March, to 18 from 19.53 in February, after five consecutive increase. The ISM corrected in February, and the recent rise in the price of oil could weigh negatively on the manufacturing sector. The prices paid and received indices should improve further.      <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Thursday 15 March <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Employment in the euro area is expected to have remained broadly stable at the end of 2011, or to have dropped by one-tenth of a point. The job destruction trend may accelerate in the months ahead, as it typically lags the economic activity cycle. We expect employment to drop by 0.3% on average in 2012, with risks skewed to the downside. <br \/><strong><br \/>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  In February the  PPI  is forecast to rise by 0.5% m\/m,  after two consecutive months on the decline. Energy and food prices should show strong increases. The core index is expected to grow by 0.2% m\/m, with a modest recovery in auto prices, after the January drop.   <br \/>&#8211;  The Philadelphia Fed index should be up slightly in March, to 11.5 from 10.5 in February. The survey is lagging the increases shown by other sector surveys, and should close part of the gap vs. the ISM. The correction of the national survey in February indicates a stabilisation in the pace of growth of the manufacturing sector, on which the rise in oil prices will also weigh.       <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Friday 16 March <br \/>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The February CPI should increase by 0.5% m\/m, driven by energy prices. The price of petrol increased by 6% in the month, and the change will be amplified by seasonal adjustment factors. The moderate trend of electricity and  gas prices will limit only in part the strong contribution made by the energy component to the headline index. The core index should be up by 0.2% m\/m, on the back of rising housing prices (with rents at the fore) and a likely rebound in auto prices.     <br \/>&#8211;  Industrial production  is estimated to have grown in February by 0.4% m\/m. The output component of the February manufacturing sector survey remains high (55.3 for the ISM) signalling that growth is continuing at a sustained pace (manufacturing sector output up by 0.7% m\/m in January). Once again in February the contribution of utilities and mining should be negative, due to persistently mild weather conditions.   <br \/>&#8211;  Consumer confidence as surveyed by the University of Michigan in March (preliminary index) should be broadly in line with the final February index (75.3) at 75.5. Both the assessment of current conditions and expectations should confirm the recovery in confidence seen in January, compared to H2 2011 levels. The recent rise in petrol prices should prevent further increases, although the recovery of the stock market, and the improvement of labour market conditions, should help. Inflation expectations on a one-year horizon should rise from 3.3% at the end of February, in light of the higher price of petrol.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the ZEW index should confirm recovering confidence, thanks to more relaxed market conditions. Broken down data on Italian GDP at the end of 2011 will highlight a drop in domestic demand and exports, as a result of the 0.7% q\/q contraction of the economy. Inflation in France is expected to rise [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=933"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/933\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}