{"id":934,"date":"2012-03-09T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-09T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/03\/09\/forex-markets-the-boj-meeting-should-contribute-to-the-yens-downtrend\/"},"modified":"2012-03-09T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-03-09T14:00:00","slug":"forex-markets-the-boj-meeting-should-contribute-to-the-yens-downtrend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/forex-markets-the-boj-meeting-should-contribute-to-the-yens-downtrend\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex markets: The BoJ meeting should contribute to the yen\u2019s downtrend"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The agreement reached for the Greek debt swap does not seem enough to  fully remove the downside risks weighing on the euro. The FOMC meeting,  while interlocutory, should not penalise the dollar. The BoJ meeting  should contribute to the yen\u2019s downtrend. For sterling to weaken, labour  market data must prove to be unequivocally negative&#8230;<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>USD (nominal effective exchange rate) \u2013<\/strong> This has been an interlocutory week for the dollar, due to mixed  indications from different sources. News of the downward revision of  China\u2019s 2012 growth target, and the Chinese government\u2019s announcement  that it intends to pursue greater exchanger rate flexibility,  contributed in part  to weakening the US dollar. On the other hand,  uncertainties over the Greek crisis supported the dollar, given its  status as a safe haven. Next week the FOMC meeting is scheduled. The  post-meeting press release will probably keep all options open in terms  of future growth-supportive monetary policy actions, if need be. The  effect of the Fed taking this stance should prove generally favourable  for the dollar.        <\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR \u2013 <\/strong>The euro proved rather  volatile in the week, due to (1) the outcome of the ECB meeting, that is  the wait-and-see stance taken by the central bank, and (2) the reaching  of an agreement on the Greek debt swap. After dropping from EUR\/USD  1.32 to 1.3096 in the first part of the week, on Thursday the euro  recovered more than it had lost, \u201cbetting\u201d on a good agreement, rising  back to just shy of 1.3300. In the wake of the announcement, however,  the exchange rate fell back to 1.31. At this point the relevant  range  in technical terms is the 1.3230-1.3165 corridor, which opens the  downside front towards EUR\/USD 1.26-1.25. The size of short euro trades  on the market hinders a correction of the single currency. However, once  the Greek crisis is over, in the strictest institutional rather than in  the tangible sense, uncertainties tied to growth in the euro area and  to the still unresolved problems of peripheral countries should continue  to fuel downside pressures  on the euro (downside targets  below 1.31  are 1.3030 \u2013 1.2827 \u2013 1.2624).       <\/p>\n<p><strong>GBP \u2013<\/strong> The positive  correlation between the GBP\/USD and the EUR\/USD made a comeback. On  Monday, despite the very poor services PMI, the pound did not drop as  the upward movement of the EUR\/USD prevailed. However, on Friday even  more disappointing data on industrial and manufacturing output were  adequately registered by sterling, that regained some independence. This  suggests that  as the Greek crisis is gradually put on the back burner,  the own issues of the UK economy will resume having a stronger impact  on sterling. Next week, releases will include data on the labour market,  which are expected to be negative. Barring favourable surprises, these  should start to weaken the position of the pound, both against the  dollar (down towards GBP\/USD 1.56-1.55) and the euro (towards EUR\/GBP  0.8500). As widely expected, on the other hand, the BoE meeting was a  non-event, with both rates and the APF <br \/>unchanged. <\/p>\n<p><strong>JPY \u2013 <\/strong>Aside  from some normal \u2013 and modest \u2013 volatility,  the yen gave no sign of  denying the downtrend which began last month. This week\u2019s mostly lateral  trend should represent a preparatory phase ahead of a continuation of  the downswing, pointing towards an upside breach of USD\/JPY 82.00. Next  week, an impulse for the initial breach of USD\/JPY 82.00 may come from  the BoJ meeting.<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\">Appendix<br \/>An<\/span>alyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. 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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The agreement reached for the Greek debt swap does not seem enough to fully remove the downside risks weighing on the euro. The FOMC meeting, while interlocutory, should not penalise the dollar. The BoJ meeting should contribute to the yen\u2019s downtrend. For sterling to weaken, labour market data must prove to be unequivocally negative&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=934"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/934\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}