{"id":946,"date":"2012-03-16T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-16T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/03\/16\/forex-markets-outcome-of-the-fomc-positive-for-the-dollar-and-negative-for-the-euro-and-the-yen\/"},"modified":"2012-03-16T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-03-16T14:00:00","slug":"forex-markets-outcome-of-the-fomc-positive-for-the-dollar-and-negative-for-the-euro-and-the-yen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/forex-markets-outcome-of-the-fomc-positive-for-the-dollar-and-negative-for-the-euro-and-the-yen\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex markets: Outcome of the FOMC positive for the dollar and negative for the euro and the yen."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  single currency has drawn no benefit from the  \u201csolution\u201d of the Greek  crisis. Focus will shift back to data:  disappointing euro area\u2019s PMIs  could depress the euro. Sterling proving  resilient against downward  pressures, but will face the Budget test on  the 21st&#8230;&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>USD<\/strong> (nominal effective exchange rate) \u2013 As we expected, the outcome of the   FMOC meeting proved supportive for the dollar, which appreciated across   the board compared to last week. We believe the Fed\u2019s ongoing focus on   US growth should fuel a positive underlying trend of the greenback in   the rest of the 2012.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EUR<\/strong> \u2013 The favourable effect the FOMC reaped on the dollar was well visible   on the euro, which pulled back from almost EUR\/USD 1.3200 to just shy  of  1.3000. Also, the \u201cpositive\u201d outcome of the Greek crisis failed to   benefit the single currency. This seems to suggest that Greek debt is no   longer a market story, and that focus should now shift back to   traditional fundamentals, and on growth in particular. Therefore,   negative European economic data, as opposed to positive releases in the   US, should produce a negative impact on the euro. As the market has   already partly priced in a positive scenario for the US economy,   European data could prove to be a discriminating factor. Next week will   be important on this front, as the flash euro area PMIs are due. In  case of disappointment, the euro would correct to below 1.3000. Supports   beneath that level are 1.2974 &#8211; 1.2931 &#8211; 1.2887 &#8211; 1.2827 &#8211; 1.2786 &#8211;   1.2734 &#8211; 1.2699 &#8211; 1.2624. The two main downside targets from a technical   standpoint, as repeatedly referred, are EUR\/USD 1.2827 and 1.2624,   although a markedly short market on the euro could continue to contain   downside or push further back in time the expected correction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>GBP<\/strong> \u2013 Despite (1) poor labour market data and (2) Fitch\u2019s downgrading of   the United Kingdom\u2019s outlook to negative from stable, sterling   strengthened on the whole this week, both against the dollar and the   euro. As is the case with the euro, substantial short sterling positions   on the market are creating downside resistance. Next week, however,  the  resilience of the pound could start to waver. This is because of  (1)  several data releases, mostly expected to prove poor (first among  them  CBI industrial trends and retail sales), (2) publication of the  minutes  of the latest BoE meeting, and most off all (3) Chancellor of  the  Exchequer George Osborne\u2019s unveiling of the new Budget (by no means  a  straightforward budget, given the need to continue pursuing fiscal   consolidation despite the fragility of the British economy).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>JPY \u2013<\/strong> Also following the outcomes of the BoJ and FOMC meetings, the yen   slipped against the dollar more than we had expected, from USD\/JPY 82 to   84. The movement of the USD\/JPY, in turn, drove the EUR\/JPY, which  rose  from 107 to 109. Both against the dollar and the euro, the levels   reached could justify a technical hiatus, although against the euro in   particular the yen could retrace on the upside before continuing its   downswing.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\">Appendix<br \/>An<\/span>alyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The single currency has drawn no benefit from the \u201csolution\u201d of the Greek crisis. Focus will shift back to data: disappointing euro area\u2019s PMIs could depress the euro. Sterling proving resilient against downward pressures, but will face the Budget test on the 21st&#8230;&#8230;. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3458,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/946\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3458"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}