{"id":956,"date":"2012-03-30T14:10:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-30T14:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/03\/30\/forex-markets-euro-sterling-and-yen-all-strengthened\/"},"modified":"2012-03-30T14:10:00","modified_gmt":"2012-03-30T14:10:00","slug":"forex-markets-euro-sterling-and-yen-all-strengthened","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/forex-markets-euro-sterling-and-yen-all-strengthened\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex markets: Euro, sterling and yen all strengthened."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro, sterling and yen all strengthened. However, in all three cases   the upward movement was&nbsp; not rooted in solid grounds: the situation   could begin to pan out next week <span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span>&#8230;<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><strong> <\/strong> <strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp; <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EUR<\/strong> \u2013 The euro appreciated from just under 1.3200 to almost 1.3400.  However, the movement&nbsp; was mostly technical. The upside breakout through  1.3165 \u2013 the upper limit of the downside&nbsp; front \u2013 plus the size of  short euro positions awaiting the Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings (today&nbsp;  and tomorrow) led to an upward shift of the exchange rate\u2019s  fluctuations. From a technical&nbsp; point of view, a rise to 1.3436 may be  considered as a normal retracement, with no compromise to the  possibility of a correction towards\/below 1.3000 in the short term. In  this case, the \u201creversible\u201d upside may also even extend to 1.3471-1.3487  (end-of-February relative highs).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Next  week\u2019s ECB meeting (this time scheduled on a Wednesday) could provide  the opportunity for a downside reversal, unless the wait-and-see&nbsp; stance  taken at the previous meeting is abandoned.<\/div>\n<p> &nbsp; <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>GBP<\/strong> \u2013 This week sterling strengthened further against the dollar, from GBP\/USD 1.58 to 1.60.<\/div>\n<p> This was the pound\u2019s third consecutive week on the rise, starting from a floor of GBP\/USD 1.56.  <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">However,  the movement remained restricted to within the same trading range  already outlined in the past two months, and therefore does not signal  the start of a new trend. Economic data released in the week were mixed,  but cannot be considered positive on&nbsp; the whole. Therefore, the  strengthening of sterling does not rest on solid foundations. GDP growth  in Q4 2011 was revised downwards from -0.2% to -0.3% q\/q, the March CBI  retail sector&nbsp; survey surprised on the upside, and so did February  consumer credit data. However, other data (including mortgage approvals  and consumer confidence) were poor, and on the whole the picture for Q1  2012 is not a positive one. We expect growth to rise back into positive  territory in Q1, after&nbsp; contracting in Q4, albeit just barely above zero  (our Q1 GDP growth estimate: +0.1% q\/q). Data due next week \u2013  especially March PMI indices, expected to be down \u2013 will be important to  gain a moreexhaustive picture of the situation. The Bank of England  meeting should not bring any particular developments. Barring surprises  from data, sterling should therefore pull back against the dollar  towards GBP\/USD 1.58-1.56.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>JPY<\/strong> \u2013 This week the yen stayed at the lower end of the USD\/JPY 84-82 range.  Widespread uncertainty on the markets, and some positive data releases  in Japan, supported the Japanese currency. The expected improvement of  the Tankan on Monday could aid a deepening of the foray to between  USD\/JPY 81 and 80. In order for the yen to resume its downtrend,  interrupted last week, no disappointment must come from US data.&nbsp;  However, a retracement to within USD\/JPY 81-80 should not be taken to  signal a trend reversal, but as a temporary lateral phase.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\">Appendix<br \/>An<\/span>alyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Euro, sterling and yen all strengthened. However, in all three cases the upward movement was&nbsp; not rooted in solid grounds: the situation could begin to pan out next week .&#8230;&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3460,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/956\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}