{"id":957,"date":"2012-03-30T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-30T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/03\/30\/makrooekonomische-daten-02-06-april-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-03-30T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-03-30T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-02-06-april-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-02-06-april-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 02 &#8211; 06 April 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the ECB meeting should confirm the central bank is in wait and see mode. The <br \/> few data releases should confirm the preliminary&nbsp; readings (on the decline) of the PMI indices,&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong><br \/><strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">and  possible show a contraction of industrial output in Germany (as well as a  rise in&nbsp; unemployment and producer prices in the euro area). <br \/>Next  week\u2019s calendar of events and data releases will be a busy one in the  United States. Data should indicate a stabilization in the pace of  growth of economic activity, hindered by oil prices and the waning  effects of very mild weather conditions in the opening months of the  year. In March, the manufacturing sector ISM should stabilise, and the  non-manufacturing index should correct after two consecutive increases.  Auto sales are expected to be close to February\u2019s high levels. The  employment report should reveal&nbsp; a more moderate job trend compared to  the previous three months, with unemployment stable at 8.3%.  Construction spending is expected to be higher in February, on mild  weather. The FOMC minutes should confirm the presence of a wide range of  opinions on monetary policy strategy: the option of a new stimulus  package should remain on the table, in line with Mr. Bernanke\u2019s recent  statements. <br \/> <strong><br \/>Monday 2 April <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; The  second reading of the March manufacturing PMI should confirm the flash  estimate, with the index dropping to 47.7 from 49 in February. Both the  French and German indices are expected to be confirmed on the decline;  the first reading on peripheral countries (Italy, Spain, Greece,  Ireland) should be confirmed at lower levels than in the region\u2019s two  leading countries. These PMI levels are compatible with a stagnation of  GDP in the Spring. <br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;<strong> Italy.<\/strong> Based on provisional monthly data, unemployment may have risen further in February, to <br \/>9.3%  in our estimation. The work force survey should highlight a marked  increase in the jobless numbers, to 8.7% in Q4 2011 (with an upward  revision of the Q3 figure). <br \/>Unemployment probably still hasn\u2019t  peaked At current levels, and may rise to close to 10% between the end  of 2012 and the beginning of 2013. <br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; The unemployment rate in the  euro area could have risen by a further tenth of a percentage point in  February, to 10.8%. Although stable in Germany, the jobless rate could  be up again in Italy, Spain, and France: therefore, it is still early  days to observe an interruption of the deteriorating trend of the labour  market in the euro area. <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  Construction spending in February should be up by 0.8% m\/m, after  slipping by -0.1% m\/m in January. The increase in housing starts since  the start of the year points to a rise in spending on residential  construction. Especially mild weather conditions are generally expected  to have supported February figures.&nbsp; &nbsp;<br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; The March&nbsp; manufacturing  ISM&nbsp; should come in broadly unchanged compared to 52.4 in February. To  date, the regional surveys published have been mixed, with the Empire  index showing an improvement, as opposed to declining Philly and  Richmond Fed indices. The breakdown of survey data and other indicators  shows that the pace of growth is stable, or slightly slowing. Surging  oil prices, the waning&nbsp; of the positive effects of a particularly mild  winter, and weakening global demand should result in an interruption of  the ISM\u2019s uptrend, albeit without signalling, at least for the time  being, a clear trend reversal.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 3 April <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  Producer prices are expected to rise by 0.5% m\/m in February (from 0.7%  in January), once again driven by energy prices. The year-on-year trend  would continue to slow, staying brisk nonetheless (3.4%). Based on our  estimates, renewed tensions tied to commodity prices will keep the  average PPI in 2012 above 3%.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  The minutes of the FOMC meeting in February will shed light on the  dispersion of opinions on the risks weighing on the scenario and on  monetary policy strategy. The minutes should confirm that stances within  the Committee differed greatly in terms of the monetary policy  scenario, as seems clear based on the recent&nbsp; speeches of Fed officials.  Dudley ad Evans showed great openness to a potential new stimulus  package, in line with Bernanke; on the other hand, Lacker, Plosser and  Bullard were of the opposite opinion, and signalled the opportunity of  starting a monetary policy reversal earlier than envisaged by the FOMC,  and would support further interventions only in case of a share  deterioration of the scenario. Lockhart\u2019s position was intermediate. The  main point, however, is that over a short period of time Bernanke has  repeatedly offered an extremely cautious assessment of the economic  scenario, and in particular of the improvement of the labour market,  assuring that the option of more stimulus is \u201cstill on the table\u201d. The  minutes should reflect prevailing consensus on this position, over the  opinions of the potential dissenters.&nbsp; &nbsp;<br \/>&#8211; Auto sales&nbsp; in March  should be little changed at 14.9 mln ann., after rising sharply in the  previous two months (15 mln in February). In March sales are  traditionally supported by tax refunds; in recent months, higher  gasoline prices have prompted an increase in demand for more efficient  vehicles in terms of consumption. Auto sales are expected to continue  supporting household consumption levels.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 4 April <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; The second reading of the March services and composite PMIs should confirm the preliminary <br \/>estimates at 48.7 (services survey broadly stable, composite index down from 49.3). These PMI <br \/>levels  are compatible with GDP growth of&nbsp; around zero, therefore confidence  indices are pointing to a stabilisation, but not year to a recovery, in  economic activity. <br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; Retail sales are expected to be up by 0.4% m\/m  in February, from 0.3% m\/m in January (a rate which in any case could  be revised downwards). The reading would leave retail sales on course  for a slight rebound (0.2% q\/q) in Q1 2012, after the -0.8% q\/q decline  recorded over the three previous months. In any case, the trend of  consumer confidence is still not pointing to a significant recovery in  sales, at least not in the short term. <br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; Germany. Manufacturing  orders&nbsp; could rebound by 0.7% m\/m in February, after rising by +1.7% m\/m  in December. The trend would stay in negative territory both in  year-on-year terms (-6.1%) and on a quarterly basis (-2.9% q\/q in Q1,  assuming a stabile trend in March). <br \/>In any case the data should confirm the resilience of foreign orders, from non-EU countries in particular.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  The ADP estimate of new non-farm payrolls in the private sector&nbsp; is  expected to come in at 200k by consensus, down from 216k in February.<br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  The March&nbsp; non-manufacturing ISM&nbsp; should drop to 56.5 from 57.3 in  February. Regional services surveys were mixed in March, with Richmond  on the rise and Texas on the decline. <br \/>The ISM composite index has  risen significantly in the past two months (from 53 in December 2011)  and a correction would be physiological. Also, the February survey  highlighted concern over surging energy prices and the possible negative  effects on household spending. The prices paid component in February,  at 68.4, was back to March-April 2011 levels. The historical  relationship with the manufacturing ISM would imply a non-manufacturing  index close to 54.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Thursday 5 April <br \/>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  The ECB\u2019s April meeting should prove rather interlocutory. The central  bank will confirm that no further 36-month LTROs are on the cards, given  the improvement in market conditions and the stabilisation of the macro  scenario, albeit on modest levels. The ECB will also want to signal  that a debate over the removal of extraordinary measures is still  premature, as the underlying <br \/>economic situation remains fragile. <br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  Germany. After a volatile phase between the end of 2011 and the  beginning of 2012 (December -2.6%, January 1.6% m\/m),&nbsp; industrial output  is expected to drop back in February (by -1% m\/m based on our  estimates). The year-on-year rate could fall into negative territory (to  -0.2%) for the first time in over two years. In Germany as well the  trend of industrial activity is still slowing, albeit less so than in  the rest of the euro area.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 6 April <br \/>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  New non-farm payrolls are forecast at 190k in March from 227k in  February. Private sector employment is expected to be up by 205k (233k  in February). The pace of growth of demand is not consistent with  monthly job growth stably above 200k. In February, job reduction in the  public sector was far smaller than the average recorded in recent years,  but this should not mark the start of an uptrend in the segment, in  light of the still difficult situation of public finances at both the  state and local levels. Also, the construction sector could correct  again. <br \/>New jobless claims stopped dropping in March and stabilised  at around 350k. The unemployment rate should be unchanged at 8.3% for  the third month in a row, with the participation rate stabilising at 64%  as in February. Underemployment readings should be little changed, as  also the percentage of people unemployed for over 27 weeks (in excess of  40% since the start of the recession). Hourly wages are expected to  rise by 0.2% m\/m, after marking +0.1% m\/m increases for four months.  Data is expected to be in line with the scenario outlined by Mr.  Bernanke, i.e. a stabilisation of the labour market\u2019s pace of  improvement.<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. 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US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the ECB meeting should confirm the central bank is in wait and see mode. The few data releases should confirm the preliminary&nbsp; readings (on the decline) of the PMI indices,&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/957\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}