{"id":980,"date":"2012-04-20T14:10:00","date_gmt":"2012-04-20T14:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/04\/20\/forex-markets-contrary-to-the-dollar-and-the-euro-sterling-strayed-from-the-trading-range\/"},"modified":"2012-04-20T14:10:00","modified_gmt":"2012-04-20T14:10:00","slug":"forex-markets-contrary-to-the-dollar-and-the-euro-sterling-strayed-from-the-trading-range","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/forex-markets-contrary-to-the-dollar-and-the-euro-sterling-strayed-from-the-trading-range\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex markets: Contrary to the dollar and the euro, sterling strayed from the trading range"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Next week the dollar could receive some support from the FOMC&#8230;.<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/span><\/span>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The euro has been resilient in recent days, but is still at risk of a correction: market movers due over the next two weeks.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sterling  appreciated, this time compatibly with data: only disappointing Q1 GDP  growth could bring it back down already next week. The yen reversed its  trend following the BoJ\u2019s declaration of intents: further retracement  expected next week, if words are followed up by action.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another  interlocutory week on the forex markets, if not for a few, isolated  cases. On the other hand, next week could bring some more directional  movements, as the calendar of data releases and events is very busy.  Monday will also see the market digesting the outcome of the G-20, under  way today, and of the first round of the French presidential elections.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>USD<\/strong> (nominal effective exchange rate) \u2013 The dollar continued to range trade  on the whole, albeit mostly at the lower end of the range. Mixed US  data release in recent days did not allow the dollar to fare better.  However, there will be at least two important events next week: the FOMC  meeting on Wednesday evening, and the first estimate of Q1 GDP. Should  the Fed start to hint at a round of QE3, the dollar\u2019s reaction could  initially be a decline, but this should then be followed by a recovery  and a strengthening. However, a wait-and-see stance still seems to be  more likely. In any case, the new forecasts on the trend of the economy  and interest rates, to be disclosed at the end of the FOMC meeting, will  be important. Barring clearly pessimistic indications, the dollar could  start to rise back from this week\u2019s lows. Support should also come from  GDP data, if not disappointing.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EUR<\/strong> \u2013 The euro also range traded. It breached EUR\/USD 1.3000 on the  downside and 1.3200 on the upside, but failed to effectively break  through these levels. Some economic data helped the<br \/>euro, such as the  ZEW index, which rose as opposed to expectations for a decline, and the  nonnegative outcome of the \u201cfeared\u201d Spanish auctions. However, in our  view the most supportive<br \/>factor for the single currency was the  increasingly large size of short euro positioning trades on the  speculative market the previous week. Therefore, the situation may be  reversed. Next week, flash PMI data will be released. If disappointing, a  correction towards\/below 1.3000 would be rather likely, unless the  outcome of the G-20 and of the French elections prove to be especially  positive. If on the other hand economic data releases surprise on the  upside, the euro could breach the resistance at 1.3230 and press on  towards 1.3300 \u2013 although up to that level the possibility of a broader  and more decisive correction within the following week would not be  compromised, in the run up to the next ECB meeting (3 May) and to the  elections in Greece (6<br \/>May).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>GBP<\/strong> \u2013 Contrary to the dollar and the euro, sterling strayed from the  trading range, appreciating to over GBP\/USD 1.60 and below EUR\/GBP 0.82.  This time, the movement was compatible with data releases. Inflation  was higher than consensus estimates, the unemployment rate dropped<br \/>(although  this could be a temporary development), retail sales comfortably beat  expectations, and the BoE minutes sent off some hawkish signals. Indeed,  the minority that voted for a further expansion of the APF last month  has halved: Posen joined the ranks of the majority and Miles was left  alone requesting additional quantitative stimulus. The BoE is revising  short-term inflation upwards, and fears this may have negative  repercussion on medium-term prospects, although it has opted not to  express its view on this until the May Inflation Report (16 May). The  largest risk in the eyes of the central bank still seems to be the  situation in the euro area, which is hard to forecast; therefore, next  month\u2019s meeting (10 May) will be rather challenging. In the meantime,  next week (Wednesday) the first estimate of Q1 GDP is due for release,  and should show a recovery (albeit weak) to +0.1% q\/q, from -0.3% q\/q in  Q4. Disappointing data would result in a correction of sterling to back  below GBP\/USD 1,6000 and above EUR\/GBP 0.8200.<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>JPY<\/strong> \u2013 The yen also expressed a clear trend, on the downside. Following the  BoJ\u2019s verbal reassurance on its intention to adopt further expansive  measures in order to keep pursuing the new inflation target laid out,  the Japanese currency interrupted the appreciation observed in recent  weeks, and slipped back from USD\/JPY 80 to 82.00. If new measures are  put in place already on occasion of the BoJ meeting scheduled next week,  the exchange rate should manage to breach USD\/JPY 82.00 and to start to  proceed towards USD\/JPY 83-84.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\">Appendix<br \/>An<\/span>alyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. 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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Next week the dollar could receive some support from the FOMC&#8230;.&#8230;&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=980"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/980\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}